(Bloomberg) — Treasuries came under renewed pressure Monday, pushing longer-dated yields to fresh multi-decade peaks as bonds extended their monthslong slide.
Both the 10-, and 30-year yields rose at least 7 basis points to 5.34% and 5.7%, respectively, reaching the highest levels since 2002. Shorter-dated Treasuries climbed some 2 to 4 basis points.
Investors remain wary of calling a top in yields after a steady march higher from mid-August as the economy expands amid booming AI infrastructure spending, while elevated inflation sustains the prospect of further Federal Reserve rate hikes. A report on US services on Monday showed cost pressures grew the most in more than four years last month.
A 30-year US Treasury yield above 6% is “inevitable” — and likely this month, as current bond-market volatility creates a cycle driving rates higher, Earl Davis, head of fixed income at BMO Asset Management, told Bloomberg TV on Monday. The long-bond yield hasn’t been that high since 2000.
The ISM services figures for September released Monday showed the sector expanded at a slower pace, while prices paid beat forecasts and at a reading of 74 was the highest level since July 2022.
The overall tone of the report “points to mounting inflationary pressures and strong nominal growth, reinforcing a central bond-bearish underpinning over the past several weeks,” Vail Hartman, strategist at BMO Capital Markets, wrote in a note.
Interest-rate swaps showed traders priced in around a 25% chance that the Fed lifts benchmark borrowing costs at its October gathering, with a full quarter-point hike seen by the December meeting.
This week’s auctions of 10- and 30-year debt are seen providing a test of investor demand for longer-dated bonds as yields climb. The coupon auction cycle begins Tuesday with a $58 billion sale of 3-year notes.
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