Top three stock picks by Ankush Bajaj for 11 August:
Sarda Energy & Minerals Ltd—Current price: ₹534.95
Why it’s recommended: Sarda Energy & Minerals Ltd has a daily RSI at 65, indicating steady bullish momentum. MACD is positive at 26, and ADX at 28 reflects a strengthening trend. After making a new lifetime high, the stock witnessed some profit booking and is now trading at a recent major demand zone. This zone is expected to act as strong support, potentially triggering a rebound from current levels.
Key metrics: Demand Zone: Trading near major demand support after lifetime high
Pattern: Pullback to support within ongoing uptrend
MACD: Positive at 26
RSI: Daily RSI at 65, showing bullish bias
ADX: At 28, indicating trend strength
Technical analysis: Demand zone support suggests a bounce towards ₹610
Risk factors: A close below ₹498 would weaken the support and warrant caution.
Buy at: ₹534.95
Target price: ₹610
Stop loss: ₹498
Global Health Ltd (Medanta)—Current price: ₹1,423.20
Why it’s recommended: Global Health Ltd has a daily RSI of 71, showing strong bullish strength. MACD is at 31, and ADX at 35 confirms a robust trending phase. On the daily chart, the stock has broken out of a triangle pattern — a continuation setup often leading to further upside. The breakout is supported by strong momentum indicators, making the stock poised for a move towards ₹1,540.
Key metrics: Breakout Zone: Triangle breakout confirmed
Pattern: Continuation pattern indicating trend resumption
MACD: Positive at 31
RSI: Daily RSI at 71, reflecting strong buying pressure
ADX: At 35, confirming trend strength
Technical analysis: Breakout suggests further upside towards ₹1,540
Risk factors: A close below ₹1,362 would invalidate the breakout.
Buy at: ₹1,423.20
Target price: ₹1,540
Stop loss: ₹1,362
Cummins India Ltd—Current price: ₹3,806.90
Why it’s recommended: Cummins India Ltd shows strong momentum with a daily RSI at 76, MACD at 71, and ADX at 31—all confirming bullish dominance. The stochastic oscillator has also given a strong breakout above the ₹3,700 level, turning that zone into a crucial support. Sustaining above this breakout point keeps the bias positive, with potential for an upward move towards ₹3,955.
Key metrics: Breakout Zone: Stochastic breakout above ₹3,700
Pattern: Momentum continuation
MACD: Strong positive at 71
RSI: Daily RSI at 76, reflecting overbought but powerful uptrend
ADX: At 31, indicating strong trend
Technical analysis: Sustaining above ₹3,700 supports bullish continuation towards ₹3,955
Risk factors: A close below ₹3,735 would weaken bullish momentum.
Buy at: ₹3,806.90
Target price: ₹3,955
Stop loss: ₹3,735
Stock market wrap
The Nifty 50 dropped sharply by 232.85 points or 0.95%, ending at 24,363.30, while the BSE Sensex slipped 765.47 points or 0.95%, settling at 79,857.79. The Nifty Bank also closed deep in the red, losing 516.25 points or 0.93% to finish at 55,004.90, reflecting broad weakness in financial counters.
Sectoral performance was largely negative. Realty declined 0.45%, Metal fell 0.25%, and Auto dipped 0.20%, highlighting the absence of strong buying support. While Oil & Gas (+0.75%), Healthcare (+0.61%), and PSU (+0.29%) managed to hold marginally higher, the broader tone remained weak.
In stock-specific movers, NTPC gained 1.52%, Titan rose 1.30%, and Dr. Reddy’s advanced 0.88% on selective buying interest.
On the downside, Bharti Airtel plunged 3.33%, Adani Enterprises lost 3.19%, and IndusInd Bank fell 3.08%, contributing significantly to the market’s overall decline.
Nifty technical analysis—daily & hourly
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On 8 August, the Nifty closed sharply lower at 24,363.30, losing 232.85 points or 0.95%, marking a clear breakdown and reinforcing the ongoing bearish momentum. This decline also came with a notable deterioration in the technical setup, as the index registered a negative crossover on the daily chart —the 20-day SMA at 24,871 has now crossed below the 40-day EMA at 24,884. This kind of crossover is often seen as a signal that a deeper corrective phase could unfold.
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At present, the Nifty is trading well below all its key short-term moving averages. On the daily chart, it remains under both the 20-day SMA and 40-day EMA, and on the intraday chart, it is below the 20-hour SMA at 24,486 and the 40-hour EMA at 24,581. The fact that the index has not been able to even test these averages during small intraday recoveries highlights persistent selling pressure and a lack of strong dip-buying interest. As long as the Nifty stays below these levels, the short-term directional bias will remain firmly negative.
Momentum indicators continue to paint a weak picture. The daily RSI has fallen to 33, entering oversold territory but without any sign of a reversal. The daily MACD has slipped further to -166, deep in negative terrain, confirming strong bearish momentum. On the hourly charts, the RSI at 35 and MACD at -67 also remain weak, with no bullish divergence visible. This suggests that although the market is oversold in the short term, the weakness is structural, and any bounce is likely to be corrective rather than the start of a sustained uptrend.
The derivatives data is in line with this bearish setup. Total Call OI stands at 173.7 million against a much lower Put OI of 83.6 million, resulting in a bearish Put–Call OI difference of -90.1 million. The heaviest Call OI is at the 25,000 strike, indicating strong overhead resistance, while the biggest Call OI addition has come at the 24,500 strike, showing fresh short build-up at this level. On the Put side, the maximum OI is far away at the 22,800 strike, while the highest Put additions are at 24,300—a sign that traders are trying to defend this nearby support, but without much conviction. The change in OI has been heavily skewed, with Call OI rising by 110 million against only 18.6 million on the Put side, keeping the trend bias firmly negative.
Overall, the Nifty has entered a decisive bearish phase, with both price action and options data pointing to further downside. The negative crossover of the 20-day SMA below the 40-day EMA adds weight to the bearish case. Until the index reclaims at least 24,500–24,580 on the hourly chart and 24,884 on the daily chart, any move higher is likely to be a short-lived pullback. Immediate support lies at 24,300-24,250, and a break below this could open the gates for a move toward 24,000, where an unfilled gap still exists. For now, the strategy remains to sell on rises toward resistance zones, keeping a stop-loss above 24,880 on a closing basis, and to avoid aggressive longs until the trend shows a confirmed reversal backed by strong volumes.
Ankush Bajaj is a Sebi-registered research analyst. His registration number is INH000010441.
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Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
