Jefferies India stock recommendations | Stocks to buy today: Amid renewed fear of inflation due to the soaring crude oil prices, the RBI MPC decided to raise the Repo Rate by 25 bps to 5.50%. The Central Bank of India raised the key rate after a gap of three and a half years, sparking speculation about the impact of the 25 bps Repo Rate hike on the Indian stock market. The global investment bank Jefferies has a solution for the clueless Dalal Street investors.
In the latest Jefferies India report dated 7 October 2026, it is highlighted that monetary tightening will negatively impact the profitability of power companies. However, after a detailed analysis of Indian power companies and their loan exposures based on fixed and floating interest rates, the global investment bank has retained its faith in three Indian power stocks: Adani Energy Solutions, JSW Energy, and NTPC.
RBI’s Repo Rate hike | Potential EPS impact
Highlighting the potential EPS impact on the Indian power companies due to the 25 bps Repo Rate hike, Jefferies India report said, “Power companies have some protection against hikes between regulated equity, fixed rate loans and lower rate hike pass through. NTPC, Power Grid and Adani Energy (AESL) should see 2-4% FY28E-30E EPS impact on 100 bps rate rise, while Adani Green could see 15%+.”
Torrent Power, Adani Power could also see less than 3% EPS impact
The Jefferies India report has highlighted that NTPC and Power Grid have 36-57% loans on a fixed vs floating rate basis. Additionally, they have the advantage of more than 70% of their gross block base being on a regulated return, with interest cost pass-through. This materially limits the EPS impact. AESL’s impact appears limited, as 65%+ of its loans are fixed-rate. Adani Green is highly leveraged at 6.5-6.6x net debt-to-equity, which makes the impact the highest in our coverage universe. However, management’s strategy of continuing to move toward long-tenor fixed-rate loans overseas and refinancing loans once assets are operational should help mitigate the perceived impact.
Jefferies India believes that power demand is up 10% YoY YTD, with generation in Sept 2026up 13% YoY. Recent news reports (New Indian Express, 03 Oct 2026) indicate that El-Nino could continue in CY27, which points to the CY26 peak deficit repeating in CY27.
Repo Rate hike impact on profitability
On the possible 100 bps repo rate hike and its impact on the profitability of the Indian power companies, the Jefferies India report said, “Interest rate impact on JSW Energy’s EPS could be 10-11%, but this would be offset if merchant power prices are higher in CY27. AESL would also see a 9-10% upside EBITDA surprise, given that higher merchant tariffs would materially improve trading business profitability.”
Jefferies India report | Final verdict
“We remain constructive on the power sector overall and believe the recent correction in stocks from peak levels in the last 5-6 months is a stock-specific buying opportunity. AESL, JSW Energy and NTPC remain our top picks,” the Jefferies India report concluded.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational and informational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified financial experts before making any investment decisions.
