Stock market prediction on Friday, 25 September, 2026: Indian equities were set for a muted opening on Friday, September 25, with GIFT Nifty indicating a subdued start as investors remained cautious amid developments in the Middle East. Reuters reported that US and Iranian negotiators were exploring a phased route towards ending the war, while elevated bond yields and crude oil prices continued to weigh on sentiment.
Asian markets traded mixed in early deals, while US stock futures edged lower on Friday, adding to the cautious tone across global markets.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said Indian equities could remain under pressure in the near term as uncertainty around a potential resolution to the US-Iran conflict persists, alongside elevated crude oil prices and rising global bond yields.
He noted that hopes of an early US-Iran deal had weakened after US President Donald Trump indicated that any potential agreement with Iran could come only after the November US midterm elections.
Meanwhile, renewed Houthi activity in the Red Sea and tensions involving Saudi Arabia have added to concerns over global supply disruptions, further increasing inflationary pressures.
Indian stock markets on Thursday
The Indian stock market endured a sharp sell-off on Thursday, September 24, with benchmark indices falling more than 1.5%, wiping out recent gains and slipping below key psychological levels. Rising global bond yields and crude oil volatility weighed heavily on sentiment.
The Nifty 50 plunged 1.64% to 25,169.50, while the Sensex declined 1.67% to 73,580. Both indices recorded their worst single-session losses in 10 weeks, with year-to-date losses widening to nearly 12%, putting them on track for their first annual decline in more than a decade.
The sell-off came amid continued global bond-market pressure, with the US 10-year Treasury yield at 5.12%, following a 15-basis-point surge on Wednesday, its biggest one-day jump since the turmoil triggered by President Donald Trump’s April 2025 tariff announcement.
“Markets came under pressure amid rising bond yields and a rebound in crude oil prices, reflecting heightened global macroeconomic risks. Investor sentiment turned increasingly risk averse as concerns over the interest rate trajectory intensified.” — Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Limited
Nair said domestic weakness in insurance and banking reflected concerns over regulatory reviews of commission structures and their profitability implications. He added that markets were hovering near key psychological support levels, with cautious sentiment likely to persist without fresh positive triggers, potentially limiting valuation expansion and making earnings growth the primary market driver. Banking and financial indices dropped 2% and 2.4%, respectively.
Sensex, Nifty prediction for today: Sensex, Nifty outlook
Gift Nifty today
Gift Nifty was trading around the 23,110 level, up around 13 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close, indicating a muted start for the Indian stock market indices.
Sensex Prediction
The Sensex could remain under pressure in the near term after its recent breakdown below a crucial support zone, with technical indicators pointing to weak momentum. However, the index is approaching a near-oversold territory, making the 73,000-73,250 zone critical for determining whether the current weakness deepens or stabilises.
“The 73,000–73,250 zone will be crucial for preventing further deterioration, while 73,850–74,000 is expected to act as an immediate hurdle. A sustained move above 74,000 could provide some relief, whereas a decisive break below 73,000 may extend the prevailing weakness.” — Sachin Gupta, VP – Technical Research, Choice Equity Broking
Gupta said the break below 74,000 had weakened the index’s overall price structure and shifted its near-term bias to sideways-to-bearish. He added that a sustained move back above the broken support could help stabilise the trend.
The RSI at 30.86, below its RSI-based moving average of 32.78, indicated weak momentum while also signalling near-oversold conditions. He said a sustained recovery above the broken support zone would be important to stabilise the trend.
Nifty 50 Prediction
The Nifty’s technical setup weakened further after another sharp decline, with the index slipping below a key previous low and momentum indicators moving deeper into bearish territory. Analysts see important support levels ahead, but continue to favour caution until the index regains key resistance zones.
“The index witnessed heavy selling pressure as negativity emerged from overnight weakness triggered by a rise in the US 10-year bond yield and crude prices. The index slipped below the previous swing low, causing further long unwinding as bearishness intensified.” — Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst, LKP Securities
Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities, said the Nifty’s daily chart continued to form lower highs and lower lows, while the index remained below its moving averages. With the RSI at 31, the index was moving deeper into oversold territory.
Mehra noted that the weak rupee and a 22.96% surge in India VIX to around 12.72 reflected renewed nervousness in the broader market. He said 22,950 was the immediate support, followed by 22,850, while 23,220 and 23,300 were the key resistance levels.
“The immediate support is placed at 23,000, below which the index might fall towards 22,700. On the higher end, resistance is placed at 23,200. The RSI has turned bearish once again, creating further negative momentum.” — Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst, LKP Securities
Mehra continued to favour a sell-on-rise approach unless the Nifty reclaimed its broken 20-day simple moving average.
US markets performance
Wall Street’s benchmark indices finished Thursday, September 25, largely flat as investors weighed rising oil prices and Treasury yields amid continued uncertainty surrounding the Middle East.
The S&P 500 edged down 2.20 points, or 0.03%, to close at 7,703.83, while the Nasdaq Composite added 1.76 points, or 0.01%, to end at 26,937.79. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 162.41 points, or 0.32%, finishing at 51,349.18.
The US dollar climbed to a fresh two-month high as Treasury yields moved higher and markets increasingly priced in the possibility of further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Hawkish comments from several central bank officials, coupled with stronger-than-expected economic data, supported the move.
Meanwhile, the benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield jumped 8.17 basis points to 5.196%, marking its highest level since 2007. The 30-year Treasury yield also rose 7.96 basis points to 5.4816%, its highest since 2004.
Crude oil prices
Oil prices slipped on Friday, after a week of sharp price gains as markets were caught between hopes of a US-Iran truce and renewed geopolitical tensions following a Houthi attack on Saudi Arabia.
Brent was down 74 cents, or 0.69%, to $105.85 a barrel at 0032 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was down 81 cents, or 0.86%, at $93.80 a barrel. The muted opening came after a turbulent week for oil markets, with crude prices climbing to a one-week high on Thursday. Both Brent and WTI surged as much as 5%, before Brent ended the session 3.4% higher and WTI gained 2.7%.
Crude oil prices had surged around 3% to a one-week high following a Houthi missile attack on Saudi Arabia, reigniting concerns over potential supply disruptions. However, prices pared some of those gains in volatile trade after reports that Washington and Tehran had discussed reopening the key shipping route.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 index performance
Japanese stocks rose in trade today after US markets ended flat in the previous session, with the Nikkei 225 opening on a flat note, up around 30 points and extending its gains to 0.6% at 65,955.5. It had ended 0.7% lower in the previous session on high bond yields and crude oil prices
Taiwan stock market
Taiwan’s stock market snapped its upward trajectory, with the TAIEX index trading marginally lower, around 0.3% at 48,024.60 on 24 September.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
