Stock market today: Indian stocks declined on Wednesday, primarily driven by rate-sensitive shares, after the central bank opted to maintain its key interest rates and adopted a ‘neutral’ policy framework, leaving some investors disappointed who had anticipated a more accommodative stance due to increasing global trade uncertainties.
At 12:55 IST, the Nifty 50 was down 0.22% at 24,596 . 50, while the BSE Sensex decreased by 0.14% to 80,607.54.
Both indices remained largely unchanged prior to the Reserve Bank of India’s policy announcement but dropped around 0.3% each shortly after the decision to keep rates unchanged.
While asserting that the outlook for the domestic economy remained “promising” despite challenges from global trade, the RBI decided to keep interest rates steady, as anticipated, and maintained its policy stance as “neutral” following an unexpected 50-basis point reduction in June.
Market Outlook by Jay Thakkar, Vice President & Head of Derivatives and Quant Research, ICICI Securities
Nifty 50
Nifty 50 has closed in the negative for the 5 consecutive weeks and generally post that the Nifty 50 either takes a pause in its downtrend or bounces back. Historically, it has closed provided negative weekly for more than 5 weeks only on 2 occasions, one in 2001 and other in 2008 which were the bear markets, so considering the ongoing trend to be a correction within a bull market, so the probability of a bounce back in the 6th week is higher.
The only concern is the IVs as its quite low for both the Nifty 50 and BankNifty and generally when markets are at such a low IV then there is a probability of a bounce back. The FII net long % is approximately 8.5% which is quite oversold, hence a short covering can’t be ruled out, thus the worry of increase in IVs can be met be short covering by FIIs in Index Futures.
On the lower side, 24,500 to 24,450 is an immediate support range, so until this range is held the probability of a positive weekly close is higher. On the upside, the Index is likely to bounce until 24,850 to 25,000 levels. As of now 24,700 has the highest call OI whereas 24,500 and 24,600 strikes have highest put OI, hence the range for the Index for this week is 24,700 to 24,500 on an immediate basis and 24,500 to 25,000 on a broader basis. Below 24,450, it can slide until 24,200 to 24,000 levels as well, hence any longs in the market have a strict stop loss of 24,450.
Stocks To Buy in the near-term – Jay Thakkar
Jay Thakkar of ICICI Securities recommends SBI Life Insurance Company Ltd, InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (Indigo), and BSE Ltd.
Buy SBI Life Insurance Company futures in the range of ₹1,880 to ₹1,870 for the targets of ₹1,950 and ₹1,990; stop loss at ₹1,820
The previous fall in the stock was due to huge short built up, however, the stock has managed to bounce back quite sharply on back of short covering and now almost all the shorts seem to have covered due to which the stock has recovered quite quickly. Now, the stock continues to form higher tops and bottoms which is a positive sign and with this low OI in futures segment , the probability of fresh long additions is quite high and that will help the prices to inch higher even more.
Buy Indigo futures in the range of ₹5,850 to ₹5,830 for the targets of ₹5,950 and ₹6,050; stop loss of ₹5,700
Indigo has been in an uptrend on a short to medium term basis. The stock is now trading well above its 20-day VWAP price i.e. above 5,800 levels approximately. The stock did witness some profit booking in the near term, however, since the trend is positive the stock is likely to witness further upside as on a medium-term basis, there is a long built-up cycle. The stock has now witness strong put additions at 5,700 strikes, hence that is an immediate support whereas 5,900 is an immediate resistance and beyond that it is likely to inch higher.
Sell BSE Futures in the range of ₹2,320- ₹2,340; stop loss of ₹2,380 targets of ₹2,240 and ₹2,200
The stock has been forming lower tops and lower bottoms indicating the trend is down, the OI has reduced indicating that the overall shorts have come down, however, there are still shorts in the stock indicating that the overall trend or momentum cycle is still is down. The stock is overall trading well below the 20-day VWAP level of 2,465 which will act as a resistance and the support on the lower side is 2,200 which is our second target. On an immediate basis 2,300 is the crucial support as at this level it has highest put OI , however, there has been significant call base at 2,500 levels which will act as a strong resistance for this series.
Disclaimer: The Research Analyst or his relatives or I-Sec do not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company, at the end of 05/08/2025 or have no other financial interest and do not have any material conflict of interest.
The views and recommendations provided in this analysis are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We strongly advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and individual circumstances may vary.
