RBI MPC meeting: The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting began on 5 October 2026 and will end on 7 October 2026. The MPC’s decision is scheduled to be announced on October 7, with investors closely tracking the RBI MPC’s move on the key rates. Indian stock market investors are also expected to keep a close watch on the RBI MPC meeting outcome, as the interest rate decision will directly impact market liquidity.
RBI MPC meeting | possible outcome
Speaking on the possible outcomes that the market expects, Avinash Gorakshkar, Founder of Avinash Mentor Research, said, “The market is expecting three kinds of outcomes: first, a 25 BPS interest rate hike, second, no change in the interest rate hike and third, more than 25 BPS interest rate hike.”
25 BPS rate hike | Impact on Indian stock market
Decoding the impact on the Indian stock market, if the RBI MPC meeting outcome is 25 BPS rate hike, Avinash Gorakshkar said, “The market is widely expecting a 25 BPS rate hike in this RBI MPC meeting. However, in the case of 25 BPS rate hike, the market is expected to remain unmoved as it has already discounted the 25 BPS rate hike.”
Interest rate unchanged | Impact on Dalal Street
“If the RBI MPC meeting comes out with the decision to keep the interest rate unchanged, then we can expect a bull run on Dalal Street, as the market is widely estimating a 25 BPS rate cut and it has already discounted this,” said Gorakshkar.
However, Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered market expert, believes the RBI MPC meeting may leave the key rates unchanged.
“After the positive fortnightly US inflation and US Non Farm Payroll Data, pressure on the US Fed to hike interest rates has eased. So, this has sparked a buzz on Dalal Street that the RBI MPC meeting may conclude with key rates unchanged. If this happens, there can be a big buying in the rate-sensitive segments: banking and financial, real estate, auto, capital goods, infrastructure, and consumer durables,” the SEBI-registered market expert said.
More than 25 BPS rate hike
Due to crude oil prices remaining elevated, inflation fears have resurfaced worldwide. As India meets 85% of its crude oil demand through imports, inflation is expected to rise if crude oil doesn’t return to normal levels. So, a section of the market is expecting a surprise in the RBI MPC meeting outcome, and that surprise could be an interest rate hike of more than 25 BPS.
“If there is more than a 25 BPS interest rate hike in the RBI MPC meeting, then in that case, rate-sensitive stocks falling in the above-mentioned segments may see a big selling pressure, which may weigh on the key benchmark indices Nifty 50, Sensex, and Bank Nifty,” said Avinash Gorakshkar.
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