National Stock Exchange (NSE) shares witnessed some profit booking on Friday, September 25, falling 1.4% to ₹1792 per share on BSE, after gaining nearly 2% in the previous session.
The stock had made its debut on the BSE on Thursday at ₹1,800 per share, a modest 0.84% premium to its issue price of ₹1785.
With the stock now trading in the public market, investors looking to hold NSE shares for the long term may be better served by focusing on a gradual accumulation strategy rather than trying to identify the perfect entry point.
What should investors do?
According to Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research at SAMCO Securities, investors should allow the stock to settle after listing and consider staggered buying if they have a long-term view.
NSE shares: How does the staggered buying strategy work?
The strategy involves investing progressively larger amounts as the share price declines. This avoids putting the entire investment amount into the stock at one price and reduces the need to accurately predict the market bottom.
Sheth suggested an illustrative accumulation plan for NSE shares:
NSE share price Shares to buy
₹1,700 100
Under this approach, an investor would buy only 100 shares if NSE trades at ₹1,700. If the stock falls further to ₹1,600, another 200 shares could be purchased. The allocation would increase to 300 shares at ₹1,500, 400 shares at ₹1,400 and 500 shares at ₹1,300. The objective is to deploy more capital as the price declines instead of attempting to identify the exact bottom.
Sheth also suggested monitoring the high and low to assess the stock’s momentum. Trading above the listing-day high could indicate stronger momentum, while a move below the listing-day low could point to weaker momentum.
The broader market environment could also influence NSE shares. Sheth noted that the US 10-year bond yield had crossed 5%, its highest level in more than two decades, with rising bond yields generally creating pressure on global equities.
At the same time, NSE entered the market as India’s 10th-largest company by market capitalisation. The research note said mutual funds, insurance companies, pension funds and overseas investors could provide a potential source of institutional demand over the coming weeks and months.
For long-term investors, the approach therefore focuses on letting the stock establish a trading range after listing and accumulating gradually rather than basing the investment decision solely on the listing price.
But, should you buy the stock?
PL has initiated coverage on NSE with an ‘Accumulate’ rating and a target price of ₹1,950, based on a valuation of 35x FY29E price-to-earnings (P/E).
“NSE dominates the exchange landscape with over ~93% share in cash market and ~100% in stock and index futures (YTDFY27), supported by strong liquidity, robust technology and a comprehensive product suite,” PL said.
PL expects EBITDA margin to improve to 76% by FY29E from 71% in FY26, with PAT also projected to grow at an 11% CAGR. NSE’s IPO values the company at ₹4.4 trillion, or 32x FY29E earnings, which PL believes largely captures its premium. The brokerage expects valuation to sustain, supported by NSE’s near-dominance in key segments, high entry barriers, healthy profit growth and potential from new derivative products and colocation revenue.
Meanwhile, Macquarie views NSE, India’s largest stock exchange, as “The Dominator”, due to its leading market share and power. It noted that the exchange has full set of services, technology stack and deep liquidity make it the lynchpin of India’s financialisation.
“We initiate at Outperform with a Rs1,965 TP. Entrenched network effects, industry-leading profitability and cash, underpin our positive outlook,” it said.
NSE is India’s dominant market infrastructure asset, combining unrivalled liquidity, scale and network effects. We expect 12% FY26-30E revenue CAGR with resilient mid-70s margins, while optionality from new products, non-transaction revenues and a higher P/N ratio remains largely unpriced, said the brokerage.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
