Ather Energy share price: International brokerage Nomura has reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating on Ather Energy and raised its target price to ₹1,470 from ₹1,120, calling the electric two-wheeler maker its “top pick to ride on EV inflection.” The revised target implies an upside potential of 22.5% from the stock’s previous closing price of ₹1,200 on the NSE.
The brokerage expects electric two-wheeler adoption in India to accelerate over the next few years, positioning Ather as one of the key beneficiaries of the structural shift towards electric mobility.
Why is Nomura bullish on Ather Energy?
According to Nomura, electric two-wheeler penetration in India is at an inflection point, supported by strong consumer demand and favourable policies from both the Centre and state governments. The brokerage now expects EV penetration to rise from around 6.5% in FY26 to nearly 19% by FY30, higher than its earlier estimate of 16%, implying a volume CAGR of around 40% over FY26-FY30.
The brokerage believes Ather, being a pure-play electric two-wheeler company, is well placed to benefit from this trend. It noted that the company maintained its market share at around 18% in FY26 despite being supply constrained.
Nomura expects Ather’s upcoming affordable scooter based on the EL platform, scheduled for launch from the third quarter of FY27, along with a new manufacturing plant, to help the company tap the ₹1 lakh- ₹1.25 lakh price segment, which accounts for around 45% of the industry. It also believes the successful launch of Ather’s new motorcycle platform could provide additional upside to its estimates.
Reflecting the stronger outlook, Nomura maintained its FY27 volume estimate at 3.99 lakh units, representing 53% year-on-year growth, while raising its FY28 estimate to 6.22 lakh units from 5.10 lakh units earlier. It also introduced an FY29 forecast of 8.24 lakh units, implying another 32% year-on-year increase.
Despite expecting a weaker product mix, the brokerage expects average selling prices to increase by around 2% as the company passes on higher commodity costs through price hikes. It forecasts revenue growth of 54%, 57% and 36% in FY27, FY28 and FY29, respectively.
Nomura also said it has factored in some moderation in EV demand as fuel price risks linked to the Middle East conflict have eased. However, if fuel prices remain elevated, it believes there could be further upside to its forecasts.
On profitability, the brokerage expects EBITDA margins to improve from negative 6% in FY27 to 5.1% in FY29, with the company likely to achieve PAT breakeven in FY29. It also expects margins to improve further as production-linked incentive (PLI) benefits available to competitors begin to expire.
Highlighting Ather’s premium positioning, Nomura said the company’s long-term margin potential remains in the 15-20% range. While it lowered its valuation multiple to 5.5 times EV/sales from 6 times as it rolled forward its valuation to FY28-FY29 estimates, the brokerage believes the current valuation of around 4 times FY28 EV/sales remains attractive given the company’s growth outlook.
“Hence, we raise our volume estimates for Ather to 399k (+53% YoY) / 622k (+56% YoY) compared to 399k/510k earlier in FY27/28 and introduce FY29 estimates with 824k units (+32% YoY). Despite a weaker mix, our average selling prices are up by nearly 2% on price hikes to pass on the commodity costs. Hence, we expect strong 54%/57%/36% revenue growth over FY27F/28F/29F,” Nomura said.
“Along with strong growth, Ather’s premium positioning keeps long-term margin potential in the range of 15-20%, in our view. Hence, we believe Ather’s premium valuation at 5-7x EV/sales should sustain. We believe the current valuation at 4.0x FY28F EV/sales is attractive given the outlook. We maintain Ather as our top pick in 2Ws.”
How has Ather Energy stock performed?
Ather Energy made a muted stock market debut in May last year, listing at ₹328 per share on the NSE, a premium of 2.18% over its Initial Public Offering (IPO) price. Since then, the stock has rallied sharply, surging 273% to hit a fresh 52-week high of ₹1,222.10.
The stock has gained more than 4% over the past week and 16% in the last one month. It is up around 62% so far in 2026 and has delivered gains of around 270% over the past one year. The company currently commands a market capitalisation of nearly ₹46,480 crore.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
