Indian stock markets extended losses on Tuesday, 29 September, after ending the previous session near a six-month low, with rising crude oil prices adding to concerns over the impact of ongoing supply disruptions linked to the US-Iran conflict.
Brent crude futures climbed 1.5% to around $107 a barrel, putting further pressure on India, the world’s third-largest crude oil importer. A sustained rise in oil prices could push up inflation, increase the country’s import bill and weigh on economic growth as well as corporate margins.
At 9:15 a.m. IST, the Nifty 50 was down 0.21% at 22,732.45, while the BSE Sensex declined 0.19% to 72,633.68.
Broader global macroeconomic concerns continued to weigh on investor sentiment, with elevated Brent crude prices, persistent foreign investor outflows and high US Treasury yields combining to reinforce risk-off sentiment in domestic markets.
“With Brent crude above $106 and the US 10-year at 5.23%, the global macro construct continues to be unfavourable for equity markets. The emerging macro scenario in the US appears to be one of high growth and high inflation. The massive AI spending is driving growth and better-than-expected growth will keep inflation elevated, warranting one more rate hike by the Fed. This, in turn, is pushing US bond yields higher.
Since higher crude prices have not been passed on to consumers, the fiscal strain on India will be higher in FY27. Therefore, if crude prices remain elevated, the fiscal strain can impact India’s GDP growth and corporate earnings growth for FY27. This concern, too, is weighing on the market.
The attractive valuations of large-cap growth stocks present buying opportunities for long-term investors,” said V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited
The market advance came on Nifty monthly expiry day, when outstanding index derivative contracts reach expiry and traders may close, roll over or settle positions. Such activity can increase trading volumes and trigger sharper intraday movements, making support and resistance levels particularly important for short-term traders.
Monthly expiry refers to the scheduled expiry of monthly futures and options contracts on a stock market index or individual stocks. In India, traders and investors often see heightened activity around expiry as positions are squared off, rolled over or adjusted before the contracts expire.
Nifty monthly expiry prediction: What are the key levels?
The Nifty remained under pressure after slipping below the crucial 23,000 mark, with technical indicators and derivatives positioning pointing to continued caution ahead of expiry. The index formed a bearish structure during the session, extending its decline and falling below key short-term support levels.
While momentum indicators have entered oversold territory, raising the possibility of a near-term pullback, analysts continued to see the broader trend as weak unless key resistance levels are decisively reclaimed.
Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Broking, said the short-term setup remained bearish following the breakdown below 23,000, while derivatives positioning also reflected heightened caution.
“The short-term setup remains bearish following the breakdown below 23,000, with derivatives positioning also reflecting increased caution. Immediate support is placed at 22,650–22,700, while resistance is seen at 22,950–23,000,” said Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Broking Private Limited.
Moreover, Pabitro Mukherjee, Deputy Vice President-Research at Bajaj Broking, said the Nifty formed a sizeable bearish candle after making a lower high and lower low. The index opened weak, breached the previous week’s low of 23,020 and extended losses before closing below 22,800.
He identified 22,700 as a crucial downside level. A decisive breach could intensify selling and pull the index towards 22,400, where the two-year trendline and 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) are expected to provide support.
Mukherjee said a meaningful trend reversal would require a sustained higher high-higher low structure along with a reclaim of 23,000–23,100. A sustained move above 23,100 could open the way towards 23,400.
Furthermore, Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Investments, said the Nifty had slipped to its lowest level since June 2026, forming a large bearish Marubozu and extending its decline for an eighth consecutive week.
“With momentum indicators entering the oversold zone, a near-term pullback towards 23020 cannot be ruled out. However, the broader trend remains weak unless 23150 is reclaimed,” said Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Investments Limited.
James added that a break below 22,600 could accelerate the decline towards 21,800.
Key levels: Resistance at 22,870 and 23,000; support at 22,640 and 22,500.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
