Stock market latest news: Exactly two years ago, on 24 September 2024, the Nifty 50 index crossed the landmark 26,000 level for the first time ever. The bull trend continued in the Indian stock market, with the index climbing to new peaks. The existing record high of the Nifty index is 26,340, which it touched on 2nd January 2026. In fact, the Nifty 50 index touched successive highs of 26,328.55 and 26,340 on this date. After today’s stock market crash, the Nifty 50 index is currently oscillating around 23,160, which is over 3,000 points below the existing record high of 23,340.
According to stock market experts, the key benchmark indices of the Indian stock market are reeling under pressure due to the over-stretched US-Iran war. They said that the US-Iran war has given birth to an energy crisis after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil prices have remained elevated, with Brent Crude oscillating around $100 per barrel or higher for an extended period, putting pressure on the global economy, including India. As soaring fuel prices squeeze industrial margins amid rising input costs, inflation is a major concern for India and other countries.
They said that FIIs outflow, inflation concern, and pressure on the company earnings are interlinked, and in the wake of the resolution of the Strait of Hormuz looking far flung, the Indian market is looking for a fresh trigger, as the market has already discounted the US-Iran war, as we saw in the case of the Russia-Ukraine war.
Is the market waiting for the end of the US-Iran war?
Speaking on the fresh trigger, which can ignite a fresh bull trend in the Indian stock market, Sandeep Pandey, Co-founder of Basav Capital, said, “The Indian stock market has already discounted the US-Iran war, as we saw earlier during the Russia-Ukraine war. Today, global markets, including Dalal Street, have moved beyond the Russia-Ukraine war, and the key indices touched the existing peaks at a time when the Russia-Ukraine war was still underway.”
The Basav Capital expert said the Indian stock market is under pressure these days due to soaring US Treasury yields, especially 10-year yields, and a strong US dollar (USD). However, this will create problems for the US Government. The US Government can’t afford a 10-year bond yield above 4.50%, forget about the yield sustaining above or around 5%.
Sandeep Pandey of Basav Capital said that an end to the US-Iran war may not be enough to trigger a fresh bull trend until the Strait of Hormuz is opened, saying, “An end to the US-Iran war is not enough if the Strait of Hormuz is not reinstated in the pre-US-Iran war stage. As both countries (the US and Iran) look eager to stop the war, it is highly important as to how the fuel crisis is resolved while ending this unwanted war-related crisis for those countries that are not a part of this.”
Trigger beyond the US-Iran war
Pointing towards the trigger that market investors should remain vigilant about, the Basav Capital expert said, “The US Government is under tremendous pressure due to the soaring US Treasury yields. They first tried to resolve this problem by tokenising the US bonds, but it would be a time-consuming process, and Donald Trump and his team couldn’t wait long. Ahead of the midterm polls in the US, they are expected to manipulate US Treasury yields and even manipulate US bond yields. If this happens, it would be good news for the equity market of India, as a weak US dollar would fuel the US dollar inflow in emerging markets, including India.”
On why FPIs and FIIs would come to India after the US Government’s manipulation or fixing of the US Treasury yields, Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered market expert, said, “When the US dollar retraced after a few months of the US-Iran war, FIIs were bullish on the South Korean markets, setting a pattern of ‘sell India and buy South Korea. But things have changed now. There is buzz about the AI-slodown, which has put the South Korean KOSPI under immense pressure. So, manipulation of the US bond yields or fixing of the US Treasury yields would fuel the Indian stock market, even when the US-Iran war continues.”
Will the US government manipulate bond yields?
Speaking to the CNBC TV channel, a few days ago, Head of Equity Research at Jefferies, Chris Wood, has already hinted about the manipulation in the US bond yields, saying, “The evidence of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent trying to manipulate the US bond yields between 5% to 6% are already visible. If the US bond yield fails to succumb to this manipulation, then the US government would try to fix the US Treasury yields.”
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