The Indian stock market has suffered strong losses over the last year, from the beginning of Navratri 2025 to Navratri 2026, amid heightened geopolitical risks, elevated oil prices, and heavy foreign capital outflow.
The Nifty 50 is down 11% since the last Navratri, with index components falling up to 35%.
A glance over the stock market’s last year’s performance shows that global factors overshadowed domestic resilience. While the Indian economy has been on a solid footing and domestic institutional investors (DIIs) continue buying, the market has been on a downtrend due to persistent geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds, including higher oil prices due to the US-Iran conflict, the rupee’s weakness, rising global bond yields, and massive foreign capital outflow.
FPIs have sold Indian stocks worth ₹3,04,468 crore so far this year, after selling them for ₹1,66,286 crore in 2025.
Nifty’s performance and top gainers and losers
From Navratri 2025 to Navratri 2026, the Nifty index has declined by double digits (11%). As per capital market data, as many as 31 stocks are in the red in the index over this period, with shares of ITC, Tata Motors PV, Infosys, Jio Financial, and TCS losing more than 30% each.
Stocks such as HDFC Life, Maruti Suzuki, HDFC Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Max Healthcare, and M&M are down between 22% to 29%. Some 20 stocks in the index are down more than 12%.
On the other hand, shares of Shriram Finance have surged nearly 49% in this period, defying weak market sentiment. Stocks such as Titan Company, Adani Ports, and Hindalco have jumped 21% to 27% in this period. Nestle India, SBI, and Axis Bank have gained more than 10%.
The road ahead
Experts expect the market to remain rangebound in the near term as long as oil prices remain elevated and bond yields continue rising.
Q2 earnings are expected to remain healthy, but that is unlikely to charge up the bull as macroeconomic concerns keep investors cautious. The start of the rate hike cycle globally and the potential negative impact of a weak monsoon on overall domestic growth and fiscal dynamics are the risks investors cannot overlook.
“We do not see any major deviations from the expectations for a large part of the corporate earnings. The markets are at this point more worried about global volatile situations and possible worsening/ stalemate in hostilities and inflation concerns, which may potentially harm the already fragile global growth,” Narendra Solanki, Head Fundamental Research – Investment Services, Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers, noted.
Pankaj Pandey, the head of research at ICICI Securities, said for the markets to witness a sustainable run, crude oil prices and bond yields need to come down.
“Crude oil prices and bond yields are the most important factors that need to be watched from here on. Otherwise, most of the other parameters – whether you look at earnings growth or valuations in key sectors – are favourable for us,” said Pandey.
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Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.
