Indian stock market: The Indian stock market wrapped up the week on a strong note, led by robust domestic macroeconomic data, healthy GST collections, improving industrial output, and sustained growth in both the manufacturing and services sectors.
Investor sentiment also received a boost from expectations of a more accommodative global monetary policy after weaker-than-expected US labour market data. Despite mixed global signals and a slight moderation in India’s services sector activity, benchmark indices remained resilient.
The Nifty rose 0.90% to end at 24,270.80, while the Sensex gained 0.86% to close at 77,763.91 for the week.
Stock market outlook for next week
Ponmudi R, CEO – Enrich Money, believes that investors are expected to remain focused on developments in the US–Iran negotiations, with markets looking for greater clarity on the prospects of a formal agreement. While recent reports point to constructive engagement, any setback could revive geopolitical concerns and weigh on risk sentiment.
“Crude oil prices will remain in focus after stabilising around $68–69 a barrel as concerns over disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz eased. Sustained stability in energy prices would be supportive for India’s inflation outlook and external balances.
Following softer-than-expected US labour market data, which reinforced expectations of a less hawkish Federal Reserve, investors will closely scrutinise the minutes of the Fed’s June policy meeting for further insights into policymakers’ assessment of the economic outlook and the likely trajectory of interest rates,” he said.
Stock market trading strategy
Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking, said that the market continues to benefit from a favourable domestic macroeconomic backdrop, improving earnings visibility, and expectations of a more supportive global liquidity environment. Going forward, the earnings season is likely to take centre stage, alongside geopolitical developments, in shaping near-term market direction.
“Investors should continue to focus on fundamentally strong companies with healthy balance sheets, improving earnings visibility, and relative strength. Banking, pharma, realty, and defence remain among the preferred sectors along with the broader indices, given their sustained relative outperformance in recent weeks.
At the same time, maintaining disciplined position sizing and prudent risk management remains essential, as global developments and earnings-related reactions could continue to drive short-term volatility,” Mishra said.
Key technical levels to watch out for next week –
Sensex
On the Sensex outlook, Ponmudi of Enrich Money said that the index continues to trade with a constructive bias after sustaining above its recent breakout levels. From a technical perspective, the 78,100–78,200 region is expected to act as the immediate resistance. A sustained move above this band could strengthen bullish momentum and open the door for an advance towards the 79,000 region.
“On the downside, the 77,500–77,400 zone is expected to provide immediate support, followed by the 77,000 region. Holding above these levels will be crucial to preserve the broader recovery trend. Overall, the technical outlook remains cautiously positive, although sustained buying above immediate resistance will be required to confirm the next leg of the rally,” he added.
Nifty 50
On the Nifty 50 outlook, Aakash Shah, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Broking, said that the index continues to trade above its 100-day EMA (24,131) and has successfully closed above the falling resistance trendline near 24,200, both of which are expected to act as immediate support levels in the coming week.
Shah further noted that the index formed a bearish candle on the daily chart after profit booking at higher levels, it managed to sustain the bullish gap, indicating that the broader trend remains positive.
“For the coming week, 24,050–24,150 is expected to act as the immediate support zone, while 24,421 (200-day EMA) remains the first major resistance. A sustained move above 24,421 could open the doors for a rally towards 24,600, which coincides with the April swing high and remains a crucial hurdle for the bulls,” he said.
Bank Nifty
Meanwhile, on the Bank Nifty outlook, Shah added that the index formed a sizeable bearish candle, reflecting profit booking and lack of follow-through buying at higher levels. Momentum indicators suggest that the index is currently undergoing a consolidation phase. The index continues to maintain relative strength versus the broader market, but its relative momentum is beginning to fade.
“From a technical perspective, the immediate support zone is placed at 57,400–57,500. This area remains critical for maintaining the positive structure of the index. As long as Bank Nifty holds above this support band, any correction is likely to attract buying interest.
On the upside, the immediate hurdle is placed at 58,400–58,500. A decisive and sustained breakout above this resistance zone could trigger fresh momentum buying and lead to an advance towards 58,900, followed by 59,300 in the short term,” he said.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
