Jefferies India stock recommendations: HDFC Bank shares are one of the beaten-down stocks in the Indian stock market. The Bank Nifty and Nifty 50 heavyweight has delivered a negative return in YTD by correcting over 27%. In the last six months, the HDFC Bank share price has slipped by over 6%. However, after the buzz surrounding the appointment of a new CEO and MD, HDFC Bank shares saw buying interest in recent sessions. In one month’s time, HDFC Bank’s share price has risen over 2%, paring all initial losses from September. However, despite YTD weakness, Jefferies India is bullish on HDFC Bank shares.
The Jefferies India report has given a ‘buy’ rating to the banking stock, predicting 22% upsideand citing the appointment of Anup Bagchi as the new CEO and MD as a major positive for the bank. The global brokerage has predicted around 25% upside for the HDFC Bank ADR, believing it may reach $28 per ADR.
HDFC Bank shares | Rationale in Jefferies India report
Highlighting the reason for being bullish on the HDFC Bank shares, Jefferies India report says, “RBI’s approval of Mr Anup Bagchi as MD & CEO of HDFC Bank will provide clarity on mgt succession & strategic direction. Timely changes to team (if any) and opportunities from (1) improving retail detail growth, (2) better cross-sell fees, and (3) calibrated re-risking of loan-mix will aid earnings and re-rating from attractive 1.4x FY28E adj PB. This will aid other banks’ valuations as well.”
The global brokerage believes that his appointment gives HDFC Bank an opportunity to optimise its operating structure.
Pickup in retail deposit growth can aid loan growth
Expecting the retail deposit growth to power the loan growth, Jefferies India report says, “HDFC Bank has lagged peers on LCR retail deposit growth (12% vs 15% for ICICI and 14% for SBI), despite offering competitive rates. It had a slower start in FCNR-B deposits but made a strong comeback, mobilising $11-12bn within two months (8-9% market share; this is 3% of total deposits and 8% of LCR non-retail deposits). Such a pickup should help the bank to refinance high-cost deposits/borrowings at slightly lower rates.”The
The Jefferies India report said that they see fee income as one of the bank’s key opportunities. Although the merger offered the bank a larger client base to cross-sell financial products, fee growth (CEB-terms) in the past two quarters has lagged at 8% and 11% YoY. This is due to slower growth in credit card fees, third-party product income, and retail liabilities; an improvement here, along the lines of ICICI Bank/other banks, could aid ROA. Bancassurance fees formed 8% of FY27 pretax profits (normalised), and if there is a 30% impact here, it could lead to a 2% profit impact — we watch out for final norms.
Positives for risk-adjusted ROA
The Jefferies India report further added that the HDFC Bank has seen higher growth in corporate & secured lending segments, and the share of loans to PSUs in total credit has risen over the past year. These, along with the downward repricing of loan rates, have been a drag on NIMs. Like most large banks, HDFC Bank could benefit from any rate hikes, as c.70% of loans are linked to EBLR/floating rates, but recalibrating the risk profile toward higher-risk-adjusted segments such as SME/Business banking loans, gold loans, and unsecured personal loans could also support ROA expansion.
Jefferies stock recommendations | HDFC Bank share price target
Speaking on the valuations and HDFC Bank share price target in the Indian stock market and in the US stock market, the Jefferies India report said, “Since 18 March 2026, HDFC Bank’s valuation gap with peers, including ICICI, Kotak, Axis, and SBI, has been disrupted (see Exhibit 12). With CEO succession now behind, a timely team reorg could strengthen execution and support a re-rating. Maintain Buy call with PT of ₹880 based on 1.6x Sep 2028E PB; ADR PT (Price Target) at $28.”
So, the Jefferies India report has set a ₹880 price target for HDFC Bank in the Indian stock market and a $28 price target for the HDFC Bank ADR on the NYSE.
HDFC Bank ADR price target
It should be noted that the HDFC Bank ADR finished at $22.34 per share. The Jefferies India report has set a $28 price target for HDFC Bank ADRs, implying around 25% upside from the current price after the appointment of Anup Bagchi as the new CEO and MD of HDFC Bank.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational and informational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified financial experts before making any investment decisions.
