Ganesh Chaturthi marks the beginning of India’s crucial festive season, a period when gold buying traditionally picks up as households purchase jewellery, coins and bullion for celebrations, gifting and weddings.
This year, however, buyers are entering the season at significantly higher price levels, with gold prices around 45–50% above where they stood during Ganesh Chaturthi last year. That raises a key question for consumers and investors: should you buy gold now or wait for a correction?
In today’s deals, MCX gold October futures were 0.09% down at ₹1,53,618 per 10 grams.
Will Gold Buying Continue?
Experts expect demand to remain resilient despite elevated gold prices, although buying patterns could change. Consumers may increasingly opt for smaller purchases, lightweight jewellery and coins rather than large-ticket acquisitions.
Kaushlendra Sinha, CEO of the Indian Association for Gold Excellence and Standards (IAGES), expects the festive season to provide an important boost to gold demand. He said Ganesh Chaturthi sets the tone for festival-led purchases, with consumers likely to remain interested despite the steep year-on-year increase in prices.
“Ganesh Chaturthi is the onset of the festival season in India and sets the sentiment for festival-led gold buying. Despite the prices being 45–50% higher than they were during Ganesh Chaturthi last year, the demand for the precious metal is expected to remain resilient this season,” said Kaushlendra Sinha, CEO, IAGES.
During festive time, the outlook for gold remains linked to interest-rate expectations, the dollar, geopolitical tensions and physical demand.
As per Sinha, consumers could become more measured in their spending because of elevated prices, with gold coins, lightweight jewellery and smaller-ticket purchases likely to gain preference. Exchange and upgrade-led purchases are also expected to contribute meaningfully to overall demand.
Meanwhile, Darshan Desai, CEO of Aspect Bullion & Refinery also sees demand for gold rising. Desai said gold has entered the festive season at elevated levels, with prices currently around ₹1.53 lakh per 10 grams and broadly stable over the past week. He considers the stability encouraging as physical demand gradually improves ahead of the festive and wedding season.
“As we move into the coming weeks, we expect festive buying and gifting to become a stronger demand driver, particularly for coins, bars and customised bullion. The week ahead could remain volatile, with global interest-rate expectations, the dollar, geopolitical developments and domestic physical demand shaping prices,” said Darshan Desai, CEO, Aspect Bullion & Refinery.
Factors impacting gold price
Gold and silver have edged higher amid a softer dollar, while traders await key US inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate move. Broader concerns around US fiscal pressures are also supporting gold by weighing on confidence in government debt and the dollar.
Geopolitical tensions remain another important factor. Tensions involving Iran show no sign of cooling, with Tehran signalling that it is prepared for a more intense confrontation and warning of sharper retaliation against continued US strikes. President Trump has also suggested that the conflict is unlikely to end before the November midterms, keeping geopolitical uncertainty elevated.
US macroeconomic data will remain crucial. Producer price index data is due Thursday, followed by CPI data on Friday. A hotter-than-expected reading could strengthen the case for a September rate hike, pushing yields higher and putting pressure on gold. A softer reading could ease pressure on the dollar and rate expectations, potentially allowing gold to move towards $4,400.
Technical Triggers
Technical indicators suggest a strategy of buying on dips rather than chasing sharp rallies.
Renisha Chainani, Chief Research Officer (CRO) at Augmont, expects gold to remain in a $4,300 to $4,500 range, equivalent to approximately ₹1,50,000 to ₹1,57,000. Her technical strategy currently favours buying on dips and selling into rallies rather than aggressively chasing prices.
“Gold looks set to trade in a $4,300 (~ ₹1,50,000) to $4,500 (~ ₹1,57,000) band, favoring a buy-the-dip, sell-the-rally approach for now,” said Renisha Chainani, CRO, Augmont.
Taken together, the expert views suggest that festive demand remains supportive of gold, but elevated prices call for a measured approach. For buyers, particularly those purchasing for jewellery or gifting, smaller-ticket purchases and buying on dips could be preferable to chasing sharp rallies. The immediate gold range of $4,300–$4,500 provides the key technical framework to watch.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
