The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are expected to open on a cautious note on Wednesday, following mixed global markets cues.
Asian markets traded lower, while the US stock market ended mixed overnight, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq falling from record highs.
On Tuesday, the Indian stock market ended sharply lower, extending its sell-off for the fourth consecutive trading session.
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The Indian stock market is expected to open cautiously due to mixed global cues, including lower Asian markets and a mixed US market performance. Escalating tensions in West Asia and fears of prolonged geopolitical conflict are also contributing to investor risk aversion and market fragility.
Hotter-than-expected US inflation data led to profit booking on Wall Street, causing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to ease from record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a slight increase, while the Nasdaq Composite closed lower.
Adani Energy Solutions, Federal Bank, Indian Bank, Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX), and National Aluminium Company shares were added to the MSCI Global Standard Index. Conversely, Hyundai Motor India, Jubilant FoodWorks, Kalyan Jewellers, and Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd (RVNL) were excluded.
Analysts believe an immediate interest rate hike by the RBI is unlikely, as current developments are not expected to significantly impact inflation. The RBI is likely to maintain a cautious stance, focusing on economic stability and monitoring inflation trends, crude oil prices, and global monetary developments.
The conflict in West Asia has intensified inflationary pressures, particularly for fuel, due to supply constraints. This has weighed on India’s economy, contributing to currency depreciation and raising stagflation risks. Rising oil prices are a key concern for the RBI’s inflation outlook.
The Sensex crashed 1,456.04 points, or 1.92%, to close at 74,559.24, while the Nifty 50 settled 436.30 points, or 1.83%, lower at 23,379.55.
“Escalating tensions in West Asia have heightened fears of a prolonged geopolitical conflict, keeping investors risk-averse and triggering sustained selling across financial markets. Overall, market sentiment is likely to remain fragile until there is greater clarity on geopolitical developments and stability in energy prices,” said Siddhartha Khemka – Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.
Here are key global market cues for Sensex today:
Asian Markets
Asian markets traded lower on Wednesday, following overnight losses on Wall Street, amid concerns over higher oil prices and the ongoing Middle East conflict. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.33%, while the Topix rose 0.28%. South Korea’s Kospi dropped 0.36%, while the Kosdaq declined 0.74%. Hong Kong Hang Seng index futures indicated a lower opening.
Gift Nifty Today
Gift Nifty was trading around 23,491 level, a premium of nearly 66 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close, indicating a positive start for the Indian stock market indices.
Wall Street
US stock market ended mixed on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq easing from record highs, amid profit booking after hotter-than-expected inflation data.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 56.09 points, or 0.11%, to 49,760.56, while the S&P 500 fell 11.88 points, or 0.16%, to 7,400.96. The Nasdaq Composite closed 185.92 points, or 0.71%, lower at 26,088.20.
Nvidia stock price rose 0.61%, AMD shares declined 2.29%, Microsoft shares fell 1.18%, Amazon share price dropped 1.18%, Apple stock price gained 0.72% and Tesla stock price plunged 2.61%.
US Inflation
US consumer prices increased at a brisk pace for a second straight month in April as the war with Iran pushed up energy costs and food prices surged. The CPI increased 0.6% last month after surging 0.9% in March. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI rising 0.6%. In the 12 months through April, the CPI advanced 3.8%. That was the biggest YoY increase since May 2023 and followed a 3.3% rise in March.
Moody’s cuts India’s GDP Forecast
Moody’s Ratings cut India’s economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.8 percentage points to 6%. The ratings agency also lowered its 2027 growth projection for India by 0.5 percentage points to 6%, saying a prolonged conflict and fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran could keep growth subdued.
India Inflation
Retail inflation in India rose marginally to 3.48% in April compared to 3.40% in the preceding month, mainly due to an uptick in food prices. The year-on-year inflation rate based on All India Consumer Price Index (CPI) with base year 2024 for April was 3.48%.
Import Tariffs on Gold, Silver
India has raised import tariffs on gold and silver to 15%. The government has increased the basic customs duty on several categories of gold and silver imports to 10% from 5%, while the Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess (AIDC) of 5% continues, taking the total effective import tax to 15%.
MSCI Rejig
Adani Energy Solutions, Federal Bank, Indian Bank, Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) and National Aluminium Company shares have been added to the MSCI Global Standard Index. On the other hand, MSCI has excluded Hyundai Motor India, Jubilant Foodworks, Kalyan Jewellers and Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd (RVNL) from the index.
Gold Rate Today
Gold prices were steady as investors stayed on the sidelines ahead of a key US-China summit. Spot gold price was steady at $4,713.39 per ounce, while US gold futures for June delivery gained 0.7% to $4,721.80. Spot silver price rose 1% to $87.40 per ounce.
Crude Oil Prices
Crude oil prices fell after rising almost 8% over the past three sessions as a resolution to the US-Iran war in the Middle East remains elusive. Brent crude oil price declined 0.96% to $106.74 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures dropped 0.70 to $101.46.
(With inputs from Agencies)
