(Bloomberg) — European natural gas followed oil higher as traders awaited next steps in efforts to revive shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Benchmark futures rose in another choppy session amid signs that Iran and the US remained far apart on a new ceasefire deal or the reopening of Hormuz.
Tehran said it’s sticking to a proposal that President Donald Trump has rejected. At the same time, Trump indicated that negotiations could resume this week. Iran will meet mediators on Monday, the semi-official Iranian Students’ News Agency reported. As disruptions continue in the critical waterway, Qatar extended force majeure on liquefied natural gas shipments to Asia and Europe by another month.
Meanwhile, Europe is running out of time to rebuild its unusually low gas inventories before the heating season. Around a fifth of the world’s LNG used to transit Hormuz, and the prolonged disruption is setting the stage for intense competition among global buyers of the fuel. The European Union warned its member states about a potential energy price crisis, asking them to consider measures to cut demand and to continue filling storage.
European gas prices fluctuated sharply last week as mixed signals emerged on efforts to revive flows through Hormuz. Negotiators had explored a deal to reopen the waterway and for Washington to lift a blockade of Iranian ports, according to a person familiar with the matter. The agreement would have been similar to the memorandum of understanding reached in mid-June, which led to a fragile ceasefire that soon collapsed.
Prices could move sharply in either direction this winter, potentially surging above €100 a megawatt-hour if disruptions in gas supplies to the region coincide with severe cold spells in both Europe and Asia, according to Marco Saalfrank, head of merchant trading at Swiss-based Axpo Holding AG.
They could also fall if transit disruptions through the strait are resolved, or if Qatar finds other ways to export LNG through the waterway. However, “Even if prices fall, we do not expect them to immediately return to pre-war levels — below €30 — as some uncertainty will likely remain,” Saalfrank said.
For now, Europe’s vast gas-storage sites are about 71% full — well below the five-year seasonal average of 87% — though LNG imports have picked up since mid-August after a sharp drop. In Germany, which has Europe’s largest storage capacity, facilities are just over 57% full.
The country has discussed with industry the idea of mandatory gas-storage filling for next year, after struggling to replenish stockpiles this summer, according to people familiar with the discussions.
Dutch front-month futures, Europe’s gas benchmark, traded up 1% at €72.77 a megawatt-hour by 6:05 p.m. in Amsterdam after fluctuating earlier.
–With assistance from John Deane.
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