Domestic brokerage firm Anand Rathi, in its latest note, has initiated coverage on Aditya Birla Real Estate with a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of ₹1,345 per share, indicating an upside potential of 30% from the stock’s latest closing price.
Despite the stock remaining under severe selling pressure and losing 38% of its value in 2026 so far to trade at around ₹1,036 apiece, the brokerage remains confident about its long-term growth prospects.
It believes the company is positioned for renewed growth acceleration, citing expectations of a recovery in pre-sales, supported by the enhanced gross development value (GDV) of Niyaara Tower C and a stronger launch pipeline.
Pre-sales recovery from FY28
Anand Rathi said that the company is transitioning from a Worli-led growth story to a diversified, capital-efficient real estate platform, with an expanding multi-city portfolio and commercial annuity assets.
It highlighted that Worli residential portfolio accounts for approximately ₹243 billion (50%) of the company’s approximately ₹483 billion upcoming launch pipeline, making it the key contributor to near-term launch visibility, with the planned Tower C launch expected to drive the next phase of Worli-led growth.
Anand Rathi said that following a sharp scale-up in pre-sales on the back of strong business development (BD) during FY23-25, a moderation in BD additions and deferment of the Niyaara Tower C launch to FY28 are likely to weigh on FY27 pre-sales.
However, the brokerage believes the deferment is value-accretive, with the redesign and amalgamation of adjoining land parcels adding approximately ₹19 billion to the overall Worli gross development value (GDV).
With approximately ₹60 billion of BD additions year-to-date (YTD), a further ₹600 billion opportunity pipeline and a stronger launch pipeline from FY28, Anand Rathi expects pre-sales to regain momentum, supporting management’s target of ₹150 billion by FY29.
The brokerage added that improving collections, divestment proceeds, and selective joint development agreement (JDA)/joint venture (JV) partnerships offer financial flexibility to replenish the pipeline while containing capital intensity.
Anand Rathi said ABREL has established a multi-city development platform through 14 BD transactions across FY23-27 YTD. With approximately ₹483 billion of planned launches and a further ₹600 billion BD opportunity pipeline, timely conversion and execution will be critical to sustain growth and drive recovery in pre-sales from FY28E.
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