Dhanteras 2026: Dhanteras has always held a special place in the hearts of Indian consumers, as gold and silver purchases are deeply rooted in tradition, prosperity, and the sentiment of auspicious beginnings. For many, buying precious metals on this occasion goes beyond an investment decision; it is an emotional purchase associated with shagun, good fortune and the hope of prosperity for the family.
Gold has turned out to be a powerful wealth creator for investors who bought the precious metal on Dhanteras a decade ago and stayed invested. An investment of around ₹29,989 per 10 grams on Dhanteras 2016 would be worth approximately ₹1,41,444 today, representing 4.6 times growth.
The impressive returns underline gold’s appeal not just as a traditional festive purchase but also as a long-term investment, even through periods of price corrections and volatility.
However, in today’s deals, MCX gold price declined around 2% to ₹1,41,444 per 10 grams.
MCX gold rose from ₹29,989 per 10 grams on October 28, 2016, to ₹1,41,444 today, November 6. This represents an absolute return of 362%, or a 4.6-fold increase. However, in today’s deals, MCX gold price declined around 2% to ₹1,41,444 per 10 grams.
Meanwhile, International gold prices on COMEX, meanwhile, increased from $1,269.20 per ounce in 2016 to $4,076 in November 2026, delivering an absolute return of 221.1%, a CAGR of 12.30% and an annualised return of 14%.
Gold’s decade-long rally: Strong gains despite occasional corrections
Gold prices did not move upwards in a straight line. The metal experienced intermittent corrections, including a 5.6% decline in 2021, but resumed its upward trajectory in subsequent years. The rally became particularly strong in 2024 and 2025, when domestic prices jumped 30.6% and 61.5%, respectively.
The divergence between domestic and international returns also highlights the impact of currency movements and import-related costs on Indian gold prices. The infographic’s comparison shows that MCX gold significantly outperformed COMEX gold over the 10-year period.
Darshan Desai, CEO of Aspect Bullion & Refinery, said Dhanteras purchases continued to carry emotional and cultural significance for Indian households, beyond their investment value.
“This year, we have witnessed encouraging sales momentum, reflecting the continued trust consumers place in gold and silver as meaningful purchases for the festive season. While buying preferences may evolve, the emotional significance of owning precious metals on Dhanteras remains unchanged. At Aspect Bullion & Refinery, we believe this blend of tradition, emotional significance and long-term value continues to make gold and silver an integral part of India’s Dhanteras celebrations.”
Gold price prediction 2027: Can MCX gold hit ₹1.75 lakh?
The outlook for gold remains positive despite occasional corrections.
Renisha Chainani, Chief Research Officer at Augmont, expects domestic prices to climb further over the next year. She sees MCX gold reaching around ₹1,75,000 per 10 grams by Diwali 2027, implying an upside of approximately 20% from the current level of ₹1.45 lakh. International prices could approach $4,950 per ounce.
She expects the longer-term bull run to remain supported by several factors. Central-bank purchases continued, with official buying reaching 321 tonnes in Q3, up 42% year-on-year. Gold exchange-traded fund holdings also touched a record 4,256 tonnes.
Additionally, lower oil prices following the US midterm elections could ease inflationary pressures and give the US Federal Reserve room to move from rate hikes towards rate cuts in 2027. Lower interest rates could pull down bond yields and the dollar, supporting non-yielding gold.
Meanwhile, Axis Securities expects gold to deliver returns of approximately 20–25% by next Dhanteras, with a target range of ₹1.65 lakh– ₹1.71 lakh per 10 grams. It believes investors who missed the earlier rally could consider adding gold gradually after the correction.
“Current gold prices appear attractive for investors, having corrected more than 20% from their peak. This presents long-term investors who missed the rally with a compelling opportunity to add gold in a staggered manner to their existing portfolios,” Axis Securities said.
Should you invest in gold now? What is the recommended strategy?
The decade-long returns underline gold’s potential as a portfolio diversifier, but investors should also account for volatility and avoid assuming that past performance will automatically continue.
Chainani recommends maintaining a core allocation of 15–20% to gold, with staggered purchases or systematic investment plans (SIPs) preferred over investing a lump sum at once. This approach can help investors manage the risk of entering the market at elevated prices.
“Keep the tradition, but separate wearing from investing. Buy hallmarked jewellery for personal use and gifting, and put investment money into gold ETFs or gold mutual funds,” Chainani said.
Moreover, Deveya Gaglani, Senior Research Analyst – Commodities, Axis Direc noted that despite these near-term headwinds, current price levels present a highly attractive entry point for long-term investors, particularly those who missed the previous year’s rally. Factoring in the current negative catalysts, the remaining downside risk is limited to approximately 5% to 8%. However, the macroeconomic landscape could shift favorably in the medium term. If a geopolitical peace agreement is reached in the coming months and inflationary pressures are curbed, the Federal Reserve may pivot toward rate cuts—a move that would serve as a powerful long-term catalyst for gold prices.
Investors are advised to begin accumulating gold in a staggered, systematic manner at these lower valuations, Gaglani added.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
