(Bloomberg) — Amundi SA, Europe’s largest asset manager, expects a recovery in the gold price to around $4,500 an ounce following a selloff that dragged the metal to a three-month low.
“The worst is behind us,” said Lorenzo Portelli, head of cross-asset strategy at the Amundi Investment Institute. Traders’ positions are light following last week’s retreat, he added, which is “in favor of a rebound in the next weeks.”
Gold dropped below $4,000 an ounce last week to the lowest since mid-July, caught up in the broader unwinding of the artificial intelligence trade as investors sold bullion to cover losses elsewhere. The metal remains close to that threshold after losing nearly 10% since September, as hotter-than-expected inflation prints have bolstered expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by year-end.
Portelli said the market has already “priced in the worst scenario for gold,” — inflation without recession, which would make the case for the Fed to hike rates aggressively, a headwind for non-yielding gold. The current economic outlook doesn’t call for more hikes than markets have already priced in, he said.
Still, gold is now unlikely by year-end to reach the $5,000-an-ounce level previously expected, Portelli said. An increment of at least 10% from the current level to around $4,500 is now the base case for Amundi, he added.
Adding pressure to bullion, investors in gold-backed exchanged-traded funds — who had piled into the metal over the past few weeks — offloaded nearly 17 tons in holdings over the last three sessions. But longer-term drivers, such as demand for ways to hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty, are supportive, Portelli said.
Purchases by central banks are likely to continue supporting gold prices, he said, noting that investors will be keeping a close watch on third-quarter sovereign gold-buying data from the World Gold Council. Upcoming US inflation data will also offer clues to Fed policy in 2027, he said, given that a rate hike in December is largely priced in.
“Be patient,” Portelli said. “The overall picture is not gloomy. It’s a good time to enter the market as long-term investors.”
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