The Nifty IT index has fallen over 5 per cent in the last four sessions after the US President Donald Trump issued a proclamation establishing a $100,000 one-time payment requirement for all new H-1B visa petitions for workers currently outside the US, effective September 21. The idea behind the move is to protect American jobs.
From the next-year visa lottery cycle, $100,000 fees will apply to new H-1B visa filings, which would limit the use of H-1B visas and make on-site work more expensive.
While signs of near-term pressure in Indian IT stocks are visible following the US government’s sharp increase in H-1B visa fees, analysts believe the long-term outlook remains resilient for major players in the sector.
The Indian IT industry is adaptable enough to absorb this shock, they opined.
Long-term IT sector outlook strong
While the policy introduces cost pressures, firms with diversified delivery models and strategic offshore operations are expected to absorb the shock without major disruptions, suggest experts.
Trivesh D, COO of Tradejini, noted that the H-1B visa fee increase “is almost like tariffs being extended from goods to services.”
Major IT players like TCS, Infosys, Wipro, Tech Mahindra, and HCL Tech are among the largest users of H-1B visas. TCS alone had over 5,500 active visas as of mid-2025.
While near-term growth and investor sentiment may face pressure, Trivesh D believes the net effect on earnings per share (EPS) could be neutral over the medium term. Over the past decade, Indian IT companies have strategically reduced reliance on H-1B workers, with only 3–5 per cent of active workforces currently on these visas. Expansion of offshore delivery centres and greater local hiring in the US have created buffers, as offshore operations often generate better margins.
“The order does add uncertainty, and with President Trump continuing to introduce unpredictable policies, the full impact will only become clear once these measures are implemented. Structurally, however, Indian IT is adaptable enough to absorb the shock,” he said.
Echoing a similar sentiment, brokerage house Emkay highlighted that despite the headline risk, IT companies have several levers to mitigate the impact. These include increasing local hiring in the US, leveraging L1 visas, reducing dependence on H-1Bs, building cost escalations into contracts, and shifting work offshore.
“Such an impact is unlikely to be disruptive for IT companies, though there may be a near-term overhang on stock prices as investors price in the increased risks of protectionist measures,” Emkay said.
Nifty IT and constituents
The Nifty IT index is down around a per cent today, extending losses to the fourth straight session. In comparison, the Nifty is down around 0.4 per cent.
The IT index has been the worst performer in 2025 as well, down over 19 per cent so far this year, as against a 6 per cent rise in the benchmark Nifty.
Among constituents, all except HCL Tech were trading in the red today. Coforge was the top drag, down 2 per cent, while Persistent Systems, Mphasis, and Wipro lost around 1.8 per cent each. Tech Mahindra was also down 1.4 per cent while Infosys, LTIMindtree, and TCS shed over half a per cent each.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
