Will something finally happen?
The “Nothing Ever Happens” meme that has taken hold in financial markets will get its most severe test after the U.S. bombing of nuclear sites in Iran this past weekend.
Before this weekend, markets had been bracing for a tense two-week period during which President Donald Trump had indicated he would decide whether to go ahead with the mission to strike three Iranian nuclear facilities. The decision to join Israel’s campaign against Iran marked an abrupt about-face from Trump’s long-held vow to keep the U.S. out of overseas conflicts, especially in the Middle East.
Whatever the geopolitical motivation, markets have to deal with the possible economic and financial consequences. Most notably, oil prices could spike if Iran retaliates by halting shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
But bourses in the Middle East have rallied Sunday, John Brady, head of sales at futures broker R.J. O’Brien, wrote in a client note.
The Tel-Aviv market indexes have risen more than 1%. Kuwait’s KWSE Premier index was up 0.40%, while Egypt gained 2.67%. Qatar’s and Bahrain’s indexes were fractionally higher while the Saudi market was fractionally lower.
When Asian markets open later, the “Nothing Ever Happens” notion may be put to the test. After flinching initially, stocks and bonds globally had been little affected with Israel’s initial incursion.
As Peter Atwater noted in his Financial Insyghts note published late last week, every dip appears to have been bought by individual investors.
Threats, such as the April 2 Liberation Day tariffs announcement that sent markets plunging, have been treated as buying opportunities. Even the market plunges following the Covid collapse in 2020 ultimately led to new highs, Atwater added.
On that score, Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities, wrote in client note Sunday: “Stocks are likely to be under pressure (probably want to buy the dip.) If Treasuries open lower [in price,] you want to buy higher yields hand over fist.”
U.S. Treasury securities typically rally during times of crisis as investors seek a safe haven. This may be a test if Treasuries still hold that status.
As for risk assets, the S&P 500’s roughly 20% rebound from its April lows to within a few percent of record highs leaves it susceptible to some selling on the Iran news. But if dip buyers appear, that would suggest that not even a sudden U-turn in Trump’s foreign policy thrusting the U.S. into war means much for markets.
Write to Randall W. Forsyth at randall.forsyth@barrons.com
