The Indian stock market has been trading rangebound over the last few sessions, with the benchmark Nifty 50 remaining between 24,800 and 25,660.
Since the start of the July F&O series on Friday, June 27, the Nifty 50 has traded within a narrow band, fluctuating less than half a per cent in either direction. Thus, after posting gains for two consecutive weeks, the index now appears poised to close this week in the red.
On Friday, July 4, the index opened at 25,428.85, up from its previous close of 25,405.30, and hit an intraday high and low of 25,458.65 and 25,370.55, respectively.
The Sensex opened at 83,306.81, up from its previous close of 83,239.47, and hit an intraday high and low of 83,441.95 and 83,102.55, respectively.
Why is the Indian stock market trading rangebound?
Experts pointed out the following five key factors that could be keeping the Indian stock market in a range. Let’s take a look:
1. Persisting uncertainty over the India-US trade deal
Perhaps the biggest factor which is keeping investors cautious at this juncture is the persisting uncertainty over an India-US trade deal.
US President Donald Trump on July 1 said that a deal between the two countries could be announced soon. However, there is no official announcement yet. On the contrary, reports suggest both countries are stuck on resolving key disagreements over US dairy and agricultural products.
Meanwhile, a Bloomberg report suggested that India may allow imports of some processed, genetically modified US farm products, a potential concession after New Delhi opposed inflows of GM corn and soybeans.
Experts say the domestic market may remain in a range unless there is significant clarity about the trade deal between the two countries.
2. Caution ahead of Q1 results 2025
After a year of muted earnings, investor attention is now turning to the Q1 results of Indian corporates. In the April–June quarter of the calendar year 2025 (Q1FY26), it’s not just the numbers that will matter—management commentary and forward-looking guidance are expected to take centre stage.
Experts say a sustained earnings growth will be key for the Indian market to extend gains and scale fresh highs.
“The Nifty 50 is presently in a range of 25,200-25,800. If this range is to be broken on the upside, positive triggers are needed. An India-US trade deal can be a positive trigger. But a sustained rally in the market needs fundamental support in the form of improving earnings growth, which appears some time away,” said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments.
(This is a developing story. Please check back for fresh updates.)
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Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.
