A Mint analysis of subscription trends since 2022 reveals that between 65% and 80% of all applications now pour in on the final day of the bidding window. This pattern, visible across major IPOs from Tata Capital to Lenskart, signals a fundamental change in how India invests in new listings.
The first two days of an IPO, which were once periods of steady accumulation, now typically account for a mere 20-40% of total bids, according to market intelligence platform Prime Database.
The skew is even more pronounced in large offerings such as Tenneco Clean Air, which received a staggering 93% of its bids on the final day, followed by Orkla India (92%), LG Electronics India (91%), and Lenskart Solutions (86%). This marks a sharp departure from the pre-2020 era, when subscriptions built up more gradually and retail interest often peaked a day earlier.
The numbers underscore a sustained trend. In 2022, the median share of bids received on Day 3 was 65% of total bids. This surged to 81% in 2023 and has remained elevated at around 80%. This means that nearly four out of every five applications in recent IPOs were submitted on the last day.
This last-minute rush is reshaping the market’s mechanics, turning many IPOs into compressed, high-volatility events where speculative flows can overpower fundamental assessments.
“This post-2022 shift can perhaps be explained by the sheer number of IPOs which investors have the option of choosing from. With so many issues coming to the market, they prefer a wait-and-watch approach and apply only on the final day, based on how subscriptions and the grey market premium are shaping up. Retail investors, especially, look at QIB demand before bidding,” said Pranav Haldea, managing director of Prime Database.
The institutional calculus
The shift is most extreme among institutional investors. Qualified institutional buyers (QIBs), who traditionally spread their commitments across the bidding period, are now almost exclusively back-loading their participation. In 2022, 96% of QIB bids arrived on Day 3, rising to 99% in 2023 and 2024, and settling at 97% in 2025. This near-total migration indicates a strategic preference for minimizing capital lock-in.
Mainboard IPOs typically remain open for three working days. However, in certain special cases—such as issues requiring additional time or regulatory extensions—the subscription window can be stretched to as long as 10 days.
Retail investors follow the lead
Retail investors, while not as extreme as institutions, are also behaving differently. In 2022, 54% of retail bids came on the final day. This proportion has climbed steadily, reaching 65% in 2025. Market experts attribute this to a growing reliance on real-time signals.
“Retail investors today look for psychological comfort. They want evidence of strong demand before committing,” said Vinod Nair, head of research at Geojit Financial Services.
He pointed to a growing dependence on real-time subscription data, grey-market premiums (GMP), social-media cues, and, crucially, institutional buying patterns. Retail applicants often treat subscription momentum as a proxy for potential listing gains.
This “wait-and-see” strategy was clearly illustrated in recent issues. “Take the HDB Financial Services IPO,” said Ratiraj Tibrewal, chief executive of Choice Capital. “By the end of Day 2, its subscription was only about 1.16 times, but by the close on Day 3, it had jumped to 16.7 times.”
He added that even in the Groww IPO, strong QIB and non-institutional investor (NII) participation materialized largely on the final day, aligning with GMP signals. This behaviour suggests investors are timing their participation based on evolving sentiment rather than placing firm long-term bets at the start.
Distorted discovery
However, this frenzy is creating significant distortions. The tidal wave of last-day applications is overwhelming the Application Supported by Blocked Amount (ASBA) and Unified Payments Interface (UPI) infrastructure, leading to bidding slowdowns and temporary outages, particularly during high-profile 2025 issues. “We’ve seen platforms struggle under load. The infrastructure was not built for the entire market to apply at the same time,” noted Nair.
Beyond operational strain, the compressed bidding window is hampering genuine price discovery. Early, low subscription figures frequently suppress sentiment in the grey market, only for a late surge to artificially inflate the apparent demand. Nair warned that this dynamic “distorts true demand and complicates the pricing process because neither bankers nor investors get a reliable signal until the final hours.”
Experts also cautioned that a significant portion of these late bids may lack long-term conviction. Several IPOs with massive 30-50x oversubscription have listed strongly only to see their prices drift lower within weeks. “The gap between hype and conviction has widened,” said Sachin Jasuja, head of equities and founding partner, Centricity WealthTech.
“We see coordinated withdrawals, opportunistic bidding, and sharp profit-taking after listings. These are signs of a process driven more by quick-money strategies than long-term belief.”
A call for structural reform
Given the rising systemic risks, analysts believe structural reforms may be necessary. Jasuja suggested that earlier disclosure of institutional commitments, staggered bidding windows, or differentiated cut-off times for investor categories could help restore balance. Penalties for coordinated withdrawals and stronger real-time visibility into the bidding process are also proposed solutions.
Nair emphasizes the need for technological upgrades, suggesting AI-driven document checks and simpler retail application processes. He also proposes incentives for investors who bid on Day 1 or Day 2 to ease the final-day congestion. Both experts stress the urgent need to fortify ASBA and UPI infrastructure to withstand peak-hour surges.
India’s primary market is deeper and more active than ever, mobilizing a record ₹1.59 trillion in 2024 and already reaching ₹1.53 trillion in 2025. Yet, its mechanics have become more fragile. Until these behavioural trends moderate and structural gaps are addressed, IPO investing will continue to resemble a high-speed lottery—potentially rewarding for quick flips but increasingly risky for long-term investors.
