India Earnings Outlook is Modest Until US Tariff Resolution
India’s equity markets currently appear to be stuck in a holding pattern. Earnings are growing in high single digits, and valuations appear fair. What’s missing is a spark that gets EPS growth accelerating again. U.S. and specific emerging markets continue to outperform expectations. India, however, hasn’t been able to keep pace.
When comparing valuations, India trades at around 20 times earnings, the U.S. is closer to 22 times, and China sits much lower at 12–13 times. India has historically justified higher multiples because it behaves more like a services-led developed market. India’s industry isn’t overvalued, but growth has stalled—and it won’t pick up until corporate India resumes investing.
A significant part of the hesitation stems from tariff uncertainty with the U.S. Unlike China or the EU, India lacks the same bargaining or purchasing power, making it more vulnerable.
AI Growth is Transformational for Economies
On a different but connected front, we’re seeing the AI infrastructure boom mirror what happened during the 1999–2000 e-commerce buildout. Back then, Cisco was a $1 trillion baby because it powered the internet. I was managing U.S. funds at the time and investing in those companies, so the parallels today feel familiar. Many firms from that era didn’t make it, but the broader trend—e-commerce reshaping the world—proved absolutely correct. Today, Nvidia is worth $5 trillion, and we’ll likely see a similar story in AI: a mix of winners, losers, and entirely new players.
Mamdani, The New Mayor of the Big Apple
Meanwhile, New York City voters just elected Mamdani, a democratic socialist, as mayor—despite significant opposition from Wall Street. He’s proposing higher taxes on millionaires and businesses, free buses, expanded childcare, city-run grocery stores, and a rent freeze for stabilised apartments. The reaction from financial and real-estate circles was predictably grim. Historically, Wall Street and the city have grown together, improving infrastructure and enhancing livability; therefore, this shift introduces new uncertainty.
US Tariffs
And finally, tariffs are still a wild card. A key court decision could strike down significant Trump-era tariffs, forcing the government to repay tens of billions and weakening U.S. leverage in trade talks. Anticipating this risk, the Trump administration is reportedly preparing a Plan B.
All of this adds up to a market waiting for clarity—on earnings, politics, and especially trade.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.
