Wall Street investors will closely track the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting, along with quarterly results from several major US retailers, in the week ahead. The Fed minutes could provide important clues about the central bank’s thinking on interest rates and whether a rate increase remains possible in September.
The minutes, scheduled for release on Wednesday, will offer investors further insight into the discussions among policymakers when the Fed decided to keep US interest rates unchanged.
Expectations for an imminent rate hike have weakened following softer-than-anticipated US employment data and a modest easing in inflation. These developments have led investors to scale back bets on how soon the Federal Reserve may raise borrowing costs.
US money markets are currently pricing in just a 27% probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase at the Fed’s next meeting in September. A rate increase is not fully reflected in market pricing until early next year, according to LSEG data.
Quarterly results from some of America’s biggest retailers will provide investors with fresh insights into consumer spending and the health of the US economy.
Walmart, Target, Home Depot, Costco, Kroger and Albertsons are among the major retailers scheduled to report their results.
Several economic reports are also due during the week and could influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.
Investors will receive the preliminary US purchasing managers’ data for August, along with the Empire State manufacturing survey and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey. July industrial production and housing-starts data are also scheduled for release.
US government bond markets will also remain in focus. The Treasury is scheduled to auction $16 billion of 20-year bonds on Wednesday, followed by an $8 billion sale of 30-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) on Thursday.
US Economic Calendar
August 17 (Monday): Reports on Empire State Manufacturing Survey for August and NAHB Housing Market Index for August will be released.
August 18 (Tuesday): Reports on Housing Starts for July, Industrial Production for July, and Pending Home Sales Index for July will be issued.
August 19 (Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes will be released.
August 20 (Thursday): Data on Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey for August and Weekly Jobless Claims, leading economic Indicators for July will be declared.
August 21 (Friday): Reports on US Flash PMIs for Manufacturing and Services for August will be released.
Earnings
Following companies are scheduled to declare their quarter results in the week ahead – BHP Group, Home Depot, Baidu, Target, Lowe’s, Walmart, Alibaba, Costco, Kroger, and Albertsons.
US Stock Market Last Week
US stocks retreated from their all-time high on Friday following the weak retail sales data and as crude oil prices swung higher.
On Friday, theS&P 500 fell 13.23 points, or 0.2%, to 7,785.76. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 107.58 points, or 0.2%, to 53,732.41. The Nasdaq Composite fell 73.86 points, or 0.3%, to 26,729.16.
The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 15.57 points, or 0.5%, to 3,068.42.
For the week, the S&P 500 is up 28.12 points, or 0.4%. The Dow is down 304.52 points, or 0.6%. The Nasdaq is up 38.55 points, or 0.1%.
