Vodafone Idea share price: Scripting one of the best turnarounds in the stock market this year, shares of beleaguered telecom major Vodafone Idea have risen 50% in just the last three months alone.
This rally has not been a fluke but has been supported by a series of positive developments, with the foremost being the government’s efforts to ensure the survival of Vodafone Idea.
From its 52-week low of ₹6.12 seen in August 2025, the stock is trading 68% higher. In 2025, Vodafone Idea’s share price has gained 26% while in a year, it has risen 34%.
What’s behind the rebound in Vodafone Idea shares?
The renewed investor confidence in Vodafone Idea shares follows three main reasons, as per experts:
1. Govt acquires 49% stake
The government has become the single largest shareholder in Vodafone Idea Limited by converting a significant portion of the company’s dues into equity, a move aimed at providing financial relief to the debt-ridden telecom operator
“The government’s move underlines the company’s strategic importance for safeguarding the interest of nearly 200 million subscribers,” said Abhinav Tiwari, Research Analyst at Bonanza.
2. Relief on AGR dues
The second and the strongest trigger driver has been the growing optimism around a potential AGR dues resolution, which remains critical for Vi’s long-term financial sustainability.
The Supreme Court’s order permits the government to reconsider and reconcile Vodafone Idea’s pending AGR dues, especially for the financial year 2016–17 (estimated at ₹5,606 crore), addressing long-standing litigation on dues calculation.
This, as per analysts, has been a key trigger behind the renewed interest in Vodafone Idea stock, which faces ₹83,400 crore in AGR dues as per a latest Mint report.
3. Improving financials
Despite the loss in subscribers, Vodafone Idea posted a narrower loss for the second quarter of the financial year 2025-26 (FY26). Its net loss narrowed to ₹5,524 crore in the July-September period from ₹7,175.9 crore in the year-ago period, aided by a 2.4% growth in revenue.
ARPU has also risen meaningfully to ~ ₹180 from ~ ₹166 in the recent quarter, signalling better monetisation and improved customer mix.
All together, these developments indicate that the business is entering a gradual rerating phase, with improving operational efficiency and month-on-month traction in key performance indicators, said Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP Research at Mehta Equities.
Is worst over for Vodafone Idea?
While these factors do elevate some concerns around Vodafone Idea stock and reinforce investor confidence, analysts are quick to point out that execution and operational challenges linger.
While near-term execution risks remain elevated, recent trends indicate that the most acute phase of stress may be behind the company, said Tapse.
“However, a full turnaround is still contingent on sustained funding, consistent operational delivery, and further clarity on long-term dues. In summary, the worst appears to be easing, but the recovery path remains fragile and heavily dependent on disciplined execution,” he added.
Tiwari, meanwhile, pointed out that ongoing challenges include subscriber erosion and the heavy costs associated with migration to 5G infrastructure.
During Q2, Vodafone Idea’s subscriber base declined by 1 million sequentially to 196.7 million. Moreover, despite the ARPU increase, it remains lower than Jio’s ₹211.4 and Airtel’s ₹256.
Is more upside on cards for Vodafone Idea?
Amid the positives and negatives, Vodafone Idea still remains a high-risk, high-reward bet, according to analysts.
While the recent rally reflects improving sentiment, the underlying business fundamentals remain fragile and heavily dependent on successful regulatory and operational turnaround. A favourable outcome on AGR dues, sustained ARPU growth, and timely capital infusion are critical for the revival thesis to play out.
For now, the stock fits better as a speculative allocation within a diversified portfolio appropriate only for investors with higher risk tolerance and a multi-year horizon, said Tapse. Clear evidence of balance-sheet strengthening and network-led recovery would be essential before considering it as a core holding in the telecom space, he added.
Meanwhile, Bonanza’s Tiwari also advised investors to remain cautious about the counter till final clarifications on the Supreme Court’s order and government actions in reassessing dues do not come through.
Under a favourable scenario — supportive regulatory outcomes, steady operational execution, and a gradual subscriber-base stabilisation accompanied by continued ARPU improvement — Vodafone Idea stock could see an aggressive re-rating, with a reasonable upside target of ₹15 over the next 9–12 months, said Tapse. This view, however, is contingent on consistent progress in funding, network investments, and monetisation metrics all of which remain critical to sustaining the turnaround trajectory, he flagged.
Meanwhile, technically, Vodafone Idea has spent nearly 40 weeks forming a rounding bottom, with the key pivot resistance sitting at ₹10.5.
“A weekly close above this level would confirm the breakout and open the path toward ₹12.5, which is the next major resistance zone. However, the chart carries a heavy overhead supply, built over several years of declines and failed rallies. This means every upward move is likely to face strong selling pressure as trapped holders look to exit,” said Anshul Jain, Head of Research, Lakshmishree Investment.
Even if the stock breaks out, follow-through may remain muted unless volumes expand sharply and the supply zones are absorbed, he said, advising traders to stay selective and manage expectations.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.
