Vishal Mega Mart share price rose nearly 2% in early trade on Thursday, 24 September, before reversing gains and ending 1.13% lower at ₹105.20 on the BSE. The stock remained in focus after recent analyst interactions, with brokerages highlighting the retailer’s store expansion, private-label strategy, quick-commerce opportunity and scope for margin improvement.
Emkay Global Financial Services retained its ‘Buy’ rating on Vishal Mega Mart with a target price of ₹170, implying significant potential upside from current levels. The brokerage expects the company to deliver around 18% revenue CAGR and 27% PAT CAGR between FY26 and FY29.
According to Emkay, Vishal Mega Mart remains confident of delivering double-digit same-store sales growth (SSG) annually, supported by its differentiated private-label portfolio and growing quick-commerce business. However, the brokerage expects quarterly SSG to remain volatile due to festive and seasonal shifts.
Emkay sees considerable room for store expansion. The existing large-store format could support around 1,200 stores, with more than 100 new stores added annually. Meanwhile, the smaller-store format being tested in towns with populations of around 40,000 could significantly expand the addressable opportunity to nearly 4,000 stores.
The company has also launched Belong & Co., a relatively premium, apparel-only format in Delhi targeting younger, more affluent consumers.
Emkay noted that Vishal Mega Mart continues to reinvest its sourcing benefits into product quality, fashion, functionality and customer experience. The retailer is also expanding warehousing capacity and gradually introducing RFID technology to improve inventory management and reduce shrinkage.
Jefferies retains Buy, sees 54% upside
Jefferies analysts Vivek Maheshwari, Kedar Gattani and Rushabh Bhachawat also retained their ‘Buy’ rating on Vishal Mega Mart, with a target price of ₹160. Based on a market price of around ₹104, the target implies an upside of approximately 54%.
Jefferies said Vishal Mega Mart’s value-for-money proposition is evolving alongside rising consumer aspirations, while strong volumes and sourcing advantages support management’s confidence in maintaining margins despite investments in technology, supply chain and automation.
The brokerage sees the company’s current 833-store network as only the beginning, with management targeting around 2,000 stores over time. Smaller formats could eventually expand the opportunity to around 4,000 stores.
Private labels and quick commerce add growth levers
Private labels remain central to the company’s business model, accounting for more than 60% of FMCG volumes and around 74% of general merchandise sales. Jefferies noted that private-label FMCG margins are around twice those of national brands, while general merchandise margins are 3–3.5 percentage points higher.
Quick commerce remains relatively small, contributing less than 4% overall, though it ranges from 2% to 10% at individual stores. The business is already cash breakeven, according to management.
Jefferies believes the combination of store expansion, new formats, private-label economics, quick commerce and operating leverage provides multiple avenues for Vishal Mega Mart to scale beyond its current footprint.
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