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Varun Beverage Ltd. reported better-than-expected India volume growth (10.5% YoY) in a seasonally weak quarter (Q4), while a decline in realisation indicates increasing competitive intensity in Q4 CY25.
Management remains cautiously optimistic about delivering double-digit volume growth in India on a weak base and maintaining margins, aided by capacity additions at new plants and distribution expansion. However, the brokerage sees risks to volume momentum and margins (CY25 India margin of 26% vs guidance of 21–22%) from intensifying competition.
International business performance remained strong with 10% YoY volume growth, and is expected to benefit further from portfolio expansion (snacks portfolio, Carlsberg beer distribution) and Twizza acquisition (in Q2CY26).
ICICI Securities reiterates Hold, factoring in higher competitive intensity over the medium term.
Key risks: Steep rise in competitive pressures and faster-than-expected recovery in urban and rural economies.
Click on the attachment to read the full report:
Icici Securities Varun Beverage Q4 Results Review.pdf
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