The Indian stock market indices are expected to trade with a cautious undertone on Thursday amid fresh escalation in the US-Iran war in the Middle East. The benchmark indices may see short-covering after the sharp slump in the previous session. The trends on Gift Nifty also signal a cautiously positive start for the frontline indices, Nifty 50 and Sensex today.
Gift Nifty was trading around 23,964 level, a premium of nearly 52 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
Investor sentiment remains weak after the US launched fresh strikes on Iran, with President Donald Trump stating that the ceasefire is “over.” The renewed military action has heightened concerns over regional stability and raised fears of potential disruptions to global energy supplies.
Global market cues remain mixed. Here’s a look at how global markets have performed:
Asian Markets
Asian markets are trading with a firmer, risk-on tone this morning as the region stages a strong rebound from Wednesday’s sharp losses. Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 2.20% and the Topix rose 0.54%. South Korea’s Kospi rallied 1.96% after falling into a bear market the day before, while the Kosdaq surged 1.67%. Hong Kong Hang Seng Index inched higher by 0.16%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 was flat.
“The rebound comes even as crude oil prices remain elevated on lingering Strait of Hormuz tensions, suggesting investors are looking past yesterday’s escalation for now, though sentiment could remain sensitive to any fresh developments out of the region through the day,” said Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money.
Wall Street
US stock market ended mixed on Wednesday after Donald Trump said an interim deal aimed at ending the war with Iran was “over”. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.09% to 52,348.39, while the S&P 500 fell 0.28% to end the session at 7,482.71. The Nasdaq closed 0.20% higher at 25,870.65.
The renewed hostilities followed US strikes on more than 80 targets inside Iran in retaliation for attacks on commercial tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Washington to revoke a sanctions waiver on Iranian oil exports.
“Crude oil surged more than 5% on the news, weighing heavily on travel, cruise, and other fuel-sensitive stocks even as energy shares rallied,” said Ponmudi R.
European Markets
European equities suffered a sharp selloff as the region reacted in real time to the Iran escalation. The pan-European STOXX 600 fell nearly 2%, with almost every sector and major bourse ending in the red — the sole exception being oil and gas stocks, which gained on the crude price spike. Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 both dropped over 2%, while London’s FTSE 100 declined more moderately, cushioned somewhat by its heavier energy weighting.
Nifty 50 Outlook
Nifty 50 has witnessed a deterioration in its near-term technical structure after breaking below several key support levels.
“The 23,800 mark, Wednesday’s intraday low, has now become the immediate support level to monitor for Nifty 50; a break below could open doors to further declines toward the 23,600 – 23,500 zone, while a hold above it may allow recovery toward 24,200. The stabilization of crude oil prices and any further clarity on the US-Iran situation will be crucial in determining whether today’s rebound in Asian markets can carry through to Dalal Street,” said Ponmudi R.
As geopolitical uncertainty continues to dominate the narrative, investor sentiment is likely to remain cautious even as global risk appetite shows tentative signs of improving, he added.
Meanwhile, the sharp rise in India VIX in the previous session points to elevated near-term volatility, prompting investors to stay selective and reassess risk exposure ahead of further developments out of the Strait of Hormuz and upcoming global economic data releases.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
