Crude oil prices edged higher on Tuesday, March 24, amid supply concerns after Iran denied holding discussions with the United States to end the Gulf conflict, contradicting statements by Donald Trump, who had indicated that a deal could be reached soon.
Brent crude futures surged to $104 per barrel, while the US crude benchmark West Texas Intermediate advanced almost 4%. This rebound followed a sharp decline of over 10% in crude prices on Monday, after Trump said he had ordered a five-day delay in planned attacks on Iran’s power plants and noted that the US had held productive talks with unnamed Iranian officials, yielding “major points of agreement.”
Back home, crude oil prices on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) also rose. MCX crude oil prices surged 3.57% to ₹8,645 per barrel.
What’s driving crude oil prices today?
On Monday, tensions remained elevated as Donald Trump postponed a potential strike on Iran’s energy infrastructure by five days, citing ongoing discussions with Tehran. However, Iran rejected claims of any negotiations, and Israel continued its military offensive.
According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, US allies in the Persian Gulf are gradually moving closer to joining the conflict. Among them, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is reportedly keen to restore deterrence and is nearing a decision on whether to participate in the attacks, new agencies reported.
Meanwhile, Iranian Deputy Speaker Ali Nikzad stated that the Strait of Hormuz would not return to normal operations and ruled out any talks with Washington, according to the semi-official Fars News Agency.
Amid the ongoing West Asia war, Brent crude has surged more than 60% this month, driven by fears that escalating hostilities involving the US, Israel, and Iran could spark a global energy crisis and fuel inflation.
The conflict has disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, forcing Gulf producers to cut millions of barrels of daily output. Refined products such as diesel and jet fuel have risen even more sharply than crude, adding pressure on consumers and governments alike.
Crude oil price near-term outlook
According to global brokerage firm Macquarie, as quoted by Reuters, Brent crude oil prices could still reach $150 per barrel if the Strait remains effectively shut until the end of April.
“Even with a possible decrease in tensions after (Monday’s) announcement from President Trump, we expect a price floor of $85–$90 and a natural drift back to the $110 range until the Strait of Hormuz is restored,” Macquarie said.
Meanwhile, Anindya Banerjee, Head of Commodity and Currency Research, Kotak Securities, believes that it is still premature to fully price in a sustained crisis-driven rally.
“For now, Brent crude is likely to remain range-bound between $95 and $110 on the spot market. A decisive break below $95 would be required to confirm a shift back into a bearish trend,” Banerjee said.
(With inputs from Reuters)
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