US-Iran war: Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz on Friday after a ceasefire in Lebanon, boosting hopes of a ceasefire in the US-Iran war. However, US President Donald Trump is yet to make any statement on the Strait of Hormuz blockade, so it will remain in force.
In fact, the US President said that Iran had agreed to never again shut the Strait of Hormuz. He also vowed to bring Iran’s uranium back home to the USA., leaving the world guessing how effective his idea of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is.
Strait of Hormuz blockade: Impact on Russia, China
“To evaluate the effectiveness of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, we need to look at how it would directly impact Russia, China and its allied nations. From the Russian perspective, both can use the hassle-free Caspian Sea route. However, from the Chinese perspective, the blockade will have a direct impact on the Chinese crude oil import from Iran because Beijing contributes around 90% of the Iranian oil export,” said Avinash Gorakshkar, a SEBI-registered fundamental equity analyst.
Echoing with Avinash Gorakshkar’s views, Nitant Darekar, Research Analyst at Bonanza, said that Trump’s idea of the Strait of Hormuz blockade has a structural hole — Iran’s three Caspian ports remain untouched, giving Russia a backdoor that renders the blockade more theatre than tourniquet.
“The real target is Beijing: China absorbs ~90% of Iran’s oil exports, and disrupting that flow starves Tehran of its biggest financier,” Nitant Darekar of Bonanza said.
Is the Caspian Sea route a viable option?
However, Amit Goel, Chief Global Strategist at PACE 360, believes the Strait of Hormuz blockade will affect both Russia and China. He called this US administration’s move a ‘master class’ because it will bring two major geopolitical players into peace talks.
“The US administration is well aware that a blockade will make Russia and China a direct party in the peace talks. If you look at the immediate reaction of both nations, it looks clear that neither Moscow nor Beijing was stable while delivering their reactions,” said Amit Goel.
Goel said the Caspian Sea route is not viable because most of Iran’s oil infrastructure is in and around Kharg, near the Strait of Hormuz. Using the road logistics to depart oil tankers from the Caspian Sea route doesn’t look possible in the current scenario, as the US satellites would catch those oil tankers, and either the US or Israel’s missiles may strike them mid-way.
Chinese connection in Trump’s call to Narendra Modi
On how to look at the US President Donald Trump’s call to the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi after the failure of the US-Iran ceasefire talks in Islamabad, Amit Goel of PACE 360 said, “This can be seen from two angles: one from the geopolitical set-up in SAARC, the other is the extension of the blockade in the Indian peninsula.
From the perspective of the blockade, Trump’s call came before the announcement of the blockade. So, it’s likely that two leaders discussed the sea route through the Malacca Strait. The blockade is for only those ships that are coming from Iran, not for those that are coming from other Middle East countries that stop at the Iranian ports. So, in the event of any Chinese aggression against the Strait of Hormuz blockade, the US might seek Indian support in blocking Chinese imports through the Malacca Strait.
“The Strait of Malacca remains a critical energy lifeline for Beijing, with a significant share of its crude imports passing through this narrow chokepoint—often described as China’s long-standing Malacca dilemma. This is where India’s geography becomes strategically relevant. The Andaman and Nicobar Islands provide India with a natural vantage point near the western entrance of Malacca, strengthening its ability to monitor and potentially influence maritime traffic in a conflict scenario,” said Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money.
Akshat Garg, Head of Research & Product at Choice International, said that India effectively holds its own “Strait of Hormuz” against China in the form of the Malacca Strait, through which roughly 80% of China’s oil imports transit via the Indian Ocean.
All these experts believe the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is quite effective, and a final conclusion in the US-Iran ceasefire can be expected in the next few weeks.
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