US-Iran war: The joint attack by the US and Israel on Iran has raised geopolitical risks, dealt a blow to investors’ already weak risk appetite, and boosted commodity prices, including crude oil, gold, and silver.
US gold futures for April delivery jumped 1% to end at $5,267.20 per troy ounce on Friday, rising 11% for February. The futures market saw gold prices rising for the eighth consecutive month.
Silver futures for May surged 6.5% to end at $93.64 per troy ounce on Friday. On a monthly basis, the white metal soared by more than 18% in February, marking the 10th consecutive month of gains.
On the MCX, gold’s April futures contract settled at ₹1,62,104 per 10 grams, rising 1.50%, while silver’s May futures contract settled at ₹2,82,644 per kilogram, gaining 5.48% on Friday.
Gold and silver prices may see sharp upward movement amid rising geopolitical uncertainty.
Experts note that historically, major conflicts have triggered strong safe‑haven flows, and if the current situation broadens across the Middle East—especially amid risks of supply disruptions or blockades on key oil routes—bullion may gain significant momentum.
Silver rate may reclaim $100 mark; gold likely to get closer to the ₹2 lakh mark
Experts believe heightened geopolitical risks may trigger a sharp buying spree in precious metals, which could drive silver prices back above the $100 mark.
Hareesh V, Head of Commodity Research at Geojit Investments, said while a move toward $6,000 globally or ₹2,00,000 domestically cannot be ruled out in an extreme scenario, the trajectory will largely depend on how the conflict evolves.
“Elevated volatility and risk aversion are likely to keep investor sentiment supportive for gold in the near term,” said Hareesh.
According to Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at IndusInd Securities, COMEX gold is poised for new upside momentum amid safe-haven buying, as unprecedented U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran have intensified Middle East tensions and heightened concerns over potential disruptions to global energy supplies.
Trivedi pointed out that prices have been supported since the start of the year by persistent geopolitical tensions. On Friday, the yellow metal ended on a positive note, and tomorrow we are likely to see another gap-up in the bullion space.
“Comex Gold may rise to $5,500 per troy ounce in case of the escalation of the US-Israel-led attack on Iran. Comex Silver is also expected to experience the same positive undertone, and $100 per troy ounce is the next resistance for the week,” said Trivedi.
Harshal Dasani, Business Head at INVasset PMS, said that the US-Iran conflict adds another layer of risk premium, especially if it disrupts oil flows or widens into a prolonged regional confrontation.
Dasani highlighted that structurally, gold’s rally is not just war-driven. Central bank buying remains strong, real rates are gradually softening, and global diversification away from the dollar continues. In that backdrop, a move toward $6,000 over the next 12–18 months cannot be ruled out if geopolitical stress coincides with monetary easing and sustained ETF inflows.
However, Dasani added that translating that into ₹2 lakh per 10 grams on MCX requires more than just international strength.
“It would need a combination of $6,000+ global prices, a weaker rupee, and elevated domestic premiums. MCX gold has already rallied sharply, reflecting imported price strength and risk aversion. But ₹2 lakh is an extreme scenario in the near term,” said Dasani.
“Gold can continue trending higher if tensions persist, yet parabolic moves typically need deeper macro stress rather than headline-driven spikes. The broader bias remains constructive, but investors should separate structural upside from short-term war premium,” Dasani said.
According to Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered market expert, the US-Iran war is expected to fuel uncertainty, prompting investors to seek gold and silver as safe-haven assets.
Gupta underscored that the COMEX silver rate finished above $93 per troy ounce on Friday and is facing a hurdle at $95.
He said that if the COMEX silver rate breaks and sustains above $95 per troy ounce, the spot silver price may regain the $100-per-ounce mark, and the silver rate in India may touch ₹3,00,000 per kg.
Similarly, the COMEX gold rate today is facing a hurdle at $5,300 per troy ounce.
Gupta said that if gold breaks above this resistance, gold rates in India may touch ₹1,68,000 to ₹1,70,000 per 10 grams.
“Much will depend upon the longevity of the US-Iran war. If the war drags on like the Russia-Ukraine war, we may see gold rates in India approach its record high of ₹1,80,000 per 10 grams,” said Gupta.
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Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.
