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News for India > Business > US-Iran peace deal to crude oil prices: Top five triggers that may dictate the Indian stock market this week | Stock Market News
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US-Iran peace deal to crude oil prices: Top five triggers that may dictate the Indian stock market this week | Stock Market News

Last updated: June 21, 2026 8:16 am
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Contents
Stock Market Outlook next weekTop 5 triggers for the Indian stock market1] US-Iran peace deal2] Crude oil prices3] FII outflows

Indian stock market: India’s benchmark equity indices, the Sensex and Nifty 50, snapped their five-day winning run on Friday, June 19, as a steep decline in information technology stocks followed Accenture’s downward revision of its revenue growth forecast. Market sentiment was also led by weak global market trends, a return of foreign institutional investor (FII) selling, and ongoing geopolitical concerns.

The Sensex fell 607 points, or 0.78%, to close at 76,802.90, while the Nifty 50 declined 154.90 points, or 0.64%, ending the session at 24,013.10.

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During intraday trading, the Sensex tumbled over 900 points, breaching the 76,500 level, while the Nifty 50 fell more than 200 points to slip below 23,950. The sharp sell-off followed a strong rally in the benchmark indices, which had gained nearly 5% over the preceding five trading sessions.

Stock Market Outlook next week

According to Ponmudi R, CEO at Enrich Money, investor attention in the week ahead is likely to remain firmly focused on developments surrounding the U.S.–Iran peace process.

“Reports that US and Iranian negotiators are once again heading to Switzerland for fresh talks, just a day after the planned negotiations were called off, coupled with the implementation of the Israel–Lebanon ceasefire, have revived hopes for a broader diplomatic breakthrough in the region. As a result, markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to developments on the geopolitical front, with any further progress expected to provide additional support to global risk sentiment,” Ponmudi said.

Top 5 triggers for the Indian stock market

1] US-Iran peace deal

Talks between the US and Iran aimed at securing a permanent ceasefire were scheduled to begin on Sunday in Switzerland, with senior officials, including US Vice President JD Vance, expected to participate. The discussions are proceeding despite Iran’s renewed directive to shut the Strait of Hormuz.

The long-time rivals are coming to the negotiating table after separate confrontations in southern Lebanon involving Israeli forces and Iran-backed Hezbollah, which delayed the talks. Negotiations are taking place within a 60-day framework established under a memorandum of understanding signed by Donald Trump during a visit to Paris on Wednesday, although the agreement includes provisions for an extension if needed.

2] Crude oil prices

Brent crude prices edged higher on Friday but remained on track for a weekly decline of nearly 8%, as concerns over supply disruptions eased following a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. However, market sentiment remained cautious after Iran outlined conditions related to the use of the strategically important Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude futures had risen 66 cents, or 0.53%, to $80.38 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 94 cents, or 1.23%, to $77.54 per barrel.

Despite the day’s advance, Brent was still down roughly 8% from a week earlier, reflecting a sharp reduction in supply-risk premiums after the US-Iran agreement aimed at ending the conflict.

3] FII outflows

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) extended their selling momentum during the first half of June, with significant outflows recorded across sectors including financials, oil & gas, automobiles, IT, FMCG and metals.

FIIs remained net sellers during the period, withdrawing ₹40,486 crore from Indian equities, following net sales of ₹46,888 crore in May and ₹49,034 crore in April. Cumulatively, FIIs have offloaded more than ₹2.74 lakh crore worth of Indian stocks so far in 2026.

The financial sector continued to bear the brunt of the selling pressure, with FIIs selling shares worth ₹11,263 crore in the first half of June. This follows net outflows of ₹23,141 crore in May and ₹30,856 crore in April, making it the most heavily sold sector by foreign investors.

“This week witnessed a pivotal shift as Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) snapped a prolonged dry spell to emerge as net buyers, amounting to ₹33.86 billion. This reversal was characterized by a distinct, alternate-day rhythm—with FIIs ramping up exposure on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday—culminating in an explosive surge of ₹48.59 billion on Friday alone, heavily catalyzed by passive fund realignments during the FTSE quarterly rebalancing,” said Pabitro Mukherjee, Deputy Vice President-Research, Bajaj Broking.

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.



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