Indian stock market: The Indian stock market ended the volatile week on a positive note, breaking a two-week losing streak as investor sentiment improved amid a favourable global backdrop and RBI measures aimed at boosting foreign currency inflows. Both indices closed higher for the week, with the Nifty 50 rising 1.10% to 23,622.90, while the Sensex advanced 1.73% to finish at 75,527.95.
Investor sentiment strengthened amid optimism over a possible U.S.–Iran peace agreement, which fuelled expectations of reduced geopolitical risks and greater stability in energy markets. Further supporting market confidence, the RBI introduced forex swap facilities for eligible external commercial borrowings (ECBs) and new FCNR(B) deposits, enhancing liquidity conditions and encouraging foreign currency inflows.
Stock Market Outlook next week
According to Ponmudi R, CEO at Enrich Money, markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to developments surrounding the proposed US–Iran agreement in the week ahead.
He noted that reports indicate that substantial progress has been made and a broad consensus has emerged among key stakeholders; investors will be looking for a formal announcement and signing of the deal before fully pricing in a durable improvement in the geopolitical outlook.
“Crude oil prices will remain a critical variable for market sentiment. Continued stability or further moderation in energy prices could reinforce the recent improvement in risk appetite by easing concerns around inflation, import costs and India’s broader macroeconomic outlook. Conversely, any setback in diplomatic efforts or renewed tensions in the Middle East could quickly revive volatility and trigger a renewed increase in energy prices,” he added.
Top 5 triggers for the Indian stock market
1] US Fed meeting
The US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is set to be held on June 16–17, with investors widely expecting policymakers to leave interest rates unchanged, as indicated by CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
The upcoming June meeting will also mark the first announcement under the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh.
At the same time, inflationary pressures remain elevated, with the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, rising 3.8% in April, driven in part by higher crude oil prices amid tensions in West Asia.
“The US Federal Reserve’s policy decision will be the most significant event. Market participants will closely assess the Fed’s commentary on inflation, growth, and the future trajectory of interest rates,” said Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking.
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