In November, eight core Opec+ countries, including Russia, increased crude output by about 160,000 barrels per day, according to estimates by Argus. With this, the oil cartel has cumulatively added around 2.25 million barrels per day since it began unwinding production cuts on a monthly basis in April 2025.
Joshi, corporate director for economics and energy at the US energy giant, said that the demand-supply scenario in the near term may remain volatile. “We are seeing that Opec might actually start cutting (production) moving forward, as opposed to continuing to grow. So it’s very uncertain to predict. But in the scenario that Opec continues to produce more, then, yes there will be an oversupply given what the demand projection from our outlook is in the near term,” he told Mint in an interview.
The Opec+ countries are scheduled to raise output by 137,000 barrels per day in December. However, the cartel has decided to pause the increases in output during the January-March quarter amid anticipation of a seasonal drop in demand.
An oversupply would lead to a fall in global crude prices. This prospect holds significance for India, which is a major importer of crude. Currently, Brent crude is trading around $61 per barrel, compared to over $70 a barrel a year ago.
Stressing on the need to invest in both conventional energy sources and new technologies such as Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS) and green hydrogen, Joshi said that every country should have a mixed energy basket, keeping in view their specific requirement.
He also said that current investments in new assets are not adequate for the projections of long-term energy demand.
“Primary energy mix (globally and in India) will be supplied by oil and gas. And what’s supporting oil is the long haul transportation as I mentioned and chemical feedstock. That’s still in the money and really affordable. And then what’s supporting gas is power generation replacing coal because you get an emission benefit,” Joshi said.
“But to enable that, a lot of investment is going to be needed to enable that source of supply for oil and gas. And currently our projection which is in the outlook, if you stop complete investment today, oil (production) will decline at a rate of 15% and gas will decline at a rate of 11% per year,” he said, adding that that if huge investments are made in the coming years, prices may remain at the current level, otherwise, the supply-demand imbalance will push prices up in the future.
A recent International Energy Agency (IEA) report said that the average rate at which oil and gas fields’ output declines over time has significantly accelerated globally. It said that as of 2010, a halt in upstream investment would have cut oil supply by just under 4 million barrels per day each year. Currently, the equivalent figure is 5.5 million bpd, while natural gas decline rates have risen from 180 billion cubic metres (bcm) per year to 270 bcm.
Joshi said that Africa, South America and parts of Europe are some of the key oil-rich regions which may emerge as the new hubs for global energy supply chain.
India demand
While demand from the developed countries is expected to weaken going ahead, Joshi said that China would also plateau in coming years, while India would be among the fastest growth drivers of the global oil demand along with Southeast Asian countries like Indonesia and Malaysia.
Last month, the IEA projected that India will become the largest demand hub for energy, including oil, gas, and electricity, by 2035. In its latest energy outlook, the intergovernmental organization said that over the next 10 years, nearly half of the additional global energy demand would come from India.
“We have been saying we need to invest in this business, that we need to look for more exploration. And India has a great opportunity,” Joshi said.
By 2050, global energy demand is expected to rise by about 12% from current levels, while India’s demand is projected to increase by around 75%, reflecting much faster growth, he said.
On the outlook for energy transition and new-age technologies, he said that the pace of transition and how the energy mix will evolve will depend on affordability and scalability of solutions.
Stressing on the need to invest in diverse energy sources and technologies, Joshi said: “Policy evolution has to be really carefully managed. An example is Europe. If you are too extreme and pick winners and losers as opposed to policy being technology-agnostic and letting all the solutions compete, you can have de-industrialization, which is what is happening in Europe, and really high energy prices.”
He said that new-age energy transition technologies, including green hydrogen, would take 15–25 years to be established at scale, with costs expected to decline over that period.
“So, it will take a few decades for some of these new technologies to start being scaled up because it all depends on the economics.”
