Over the past three weeks, the Sensex has shed nearly 2,300 points, or close to 3%, while the Nifty 50 has also declined by around 3%.
On Friday, the Nifty 50 fell 143 points, or 0.57%, to close at 24,968.40, while the Sensex dropped 502 points, or 0.61%, to settle at 81,757.73.
The broader market also came under pressure, with recent outperformers in the mid- and small-cap segments witnessing a sell-off. The BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices declined 0.62% and 0.64%, respectively.
Top 3 stocks recommended by Ankush Bajaj for 21 July:
Buy: SAIL Ltd — Current Price: ₹136.45
Why it’s recommended: Despite the broader market sell-off, SAIL managed to close over 2% higher on Friday, showing strong relative strength. The stock has taken support at the 20-day moving average on the daily chart, and the daily RSI stands at 60, indicating bullish momentum. This resilience suggests that the uptrend may continue in the near term.
Key metrics: Support taken at 20-DMA; strength seen despite weak market.
Pattern: Bounce from moving average with strong candle formation.
RSI: Daily RSI at 60 confirms upward momentum.
Technical analysis: The chart indicates strong support and the potential for a move toward ₹145 in the short term.
Risk factors: A breakdown below ₹132 would invalidate the setup and invite renewed selling.
Buy at: ₹136.45
Target price: ₹145.00
Stop loss: ₹132.00
Buy: HDFC AMC — Current Price: ₹5,590.00
Why it’s recommended: On the daily chart, HDFC AMC has formed a triangle breakout pattern, supported by a strong RSI reading of 74, indicating robust momentum. On lower timeframes, the stock is trading above all key moving averages, which further strengthens the bullish outlook. A continuation of this rally could lead to much higher levels.
Key metrics: Triangle pattern breakout on daily chart with high RSI.
Pattern: Bullish triangle breakout with volume support.
RSI: Strong daily RSI at 74 signals momentum continuation.
Technical analysis: The structure suggests an ongoing breakout with scope for further upside towards ₹5,680 and higher.
Risk factors: A fall below ₹5,545 would negate the breakout and weaken the trend.
Buy at: ₹5,590.00
Target price: ₹5,680.00
Stop loss: ₹5,545.00
Buy: Glenmark Pharma — Current Price: ₹2,225.50
Why it’s recommended: Glenmark Pharma has formed abullish pennant pattern on the daily chart, indicating a continuation of its recent strong uptrend. The hourly RSI is trending higher at 59, showing that momentum is picking up again after recent profit booking. The stock made new highs recently, and this consolidation phase could lead to a fresh breakout toward lifetime highs.
Key metrics: Bullish pennant breakout on the daily chart.
Pattern: Pennant pattern with momentum re-emergence.
RSI: Hourly RSI at 59 showing strength returning.
Technical analysis: The price action suggests that the stock may be ready for another leg up towards ₹2,280, with potential to go even higher.
Risk factors: A move below ₹2,194 would invalidate the bullish setup.
Buy at: ₹2,225.50
Target price: ₹2,280.00
Stop loss: ₹2,194.00
Market Wrap – 18 July
Indian equity markets ended in the red on Friday, 18 July, as sustained selling across key sectors continued to weigh on investor sentiment. Despite brief recovery attempts—particularly in select defensives—broader market momentum remained weak, leading to a negative close across major indices.
The Nifty 50 declined 143.05 points, or 0.57%, to settle at 24,968.40, while the BSE Sensex shed 501.51 points, or 0.61%, closing at 81,757.73. The Bank Nifty also ended lower, down 545.80 points, or 0.96%, at 56,283.00, as late-session buying failed to offset earlier losses in financial stocks.
From a sectoral perspective, the tone remained largely cautious. The Banking index slipped 0.79%, Financial Services dropped 0.67%, and the Services index declined 0.59%—all reflecting profit booking and a broader risk-off mood in high-beta segments. The Metal sector stood out with a modest gain of 0.37%, offering some support to an otherwise weak market.
In stock-specific action, Wipro led the gainers with a 2.25% rise, followed by Bajaj Finance and Tata Steel, which gained 1.63% and 1.17%, respectively—supported by sustained institutional inflows and strength in metals.
However, the broader undertone remained bearish. Axis Bank fell sharply by 2.75%, Shriram Finance declined 1.67%, and Bharat Electronics Ltd. dropped 1.44%, reflecting investor caution in previously strong counters.
Nifty Technical Analysis Daily & Hourly
The Nifty ended Thursday’s session on a weak note, closing at 24,968.40, down 143.05 points or 0.57 percent, marking a clear breakdown below the psychological 25,000 mark. This close below a key level indicates a further deterioration in short-term sentiment and suggests that the selling pressure may continue in the coming sessions.
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Technically, the index is now trading below both the 20-day simple moving average, which stands at 25,318, and the 40-day exponential moving average at 25,038. This structure signals that the upside remains capped unless the index manages to reclaim these moving averages decisively. The hourly chart also shows continued weakness, with Nifty trading below its 20-hour simple moving average of 25,137 and the 40-hour EMA at 25,101. More importantly, the index has broken down from the lower end of a rising wedge pattern, which is a bearish technical formation. This breakdown projects a near-term downside towards the 24,700 level, and if that fails to hold, the next major support lies around 24,500.
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Momentum indicators are reinforcing this bearish bias. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped to 43, showing a weakening trend, while the hourly RSI has fallen to 30, indicating oversold conditions and persistent intraday selling pressure. The daily MACD remains in positive territory at 38, suggesting that the medium-term trend hasn’t entirely flipped bearish, but the hourly MACD has plunged to –65, confirming strong short-term downside momentum.
Options data also presents a clearly bearish setup. Total Call open interest stands at 13.61 crore compared to 8.15 crore on the Put side, leading to a net difference of –5.47 crore, indicating aggressive call writing. The highest Call open interest is at the 25,200 strike, with maximum additions at 25,100, reinforcing a strong resistance zone overhead. On the Put side, while the highest OI is at the 24,900 strike, the maximum additions were at 23,050, suggesting that traders are anticipating even lower levels. Intraday changes also support this bearish stance, with Call OI rising by 6.36 crore and Put OI increasing by just 3.08 crore, resulting in a net change of –3.28 crore.
Additionally, India VIX rose by 1.33% to 11.39, indicating a slight rise in market volatility and nervousness among participants.
In summary, as anticipated in earlier reports, Nifty has now closed below the 25,000 mark, which has triggered a fresh wave of weakness. The index is expected to test the next support around 24,700 on the hourly chart, where a brief pause or consolidation might occur. However, a failure to hold that level could open the doors for further decline towards 24,500.
Unless the index reclaims at least 25,318 and then 25,700 levels convincingly, the broader market trend remains fragile and tilted to the downside. Traders are advised to stay cautious and avoid aggressive long positions until signs of a reversal emerge
Ankush Bajaj is a Sebi-registered research analyst. His registration number is INH000010441.
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Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
