The first half of the session was marked by choppy and directionless movement, but the second half witnessed a sharp rally, turning a zig-zag day into a powerful upward trend.
Top three stocks recommended by Ankush Bajaj for 16 May:
Buy: HDFC Asset Management Co. Ltd (HDFCAMC) (current price: ₹4,702.00)
Why it’s recommended: On the daily chart, the stock has given a good breakout near ₹4,565 level. After the breakout, we have seen a strong rally indicating bullish follow-through. Both RSI and MACD are on the positive side, supporting the momentum and further upside potential toward ₹4,850+ levels.
Key metrics: Resistance level: ₹4,850– ₹4,880 (supply zone) | Support level: ₹4,565 (recent breakout base) | Pattern: Breakout with follow-through | Volume: Healthy during breakout
Technical analysis: Price is trading above major moving averages. RSI >60 and MACD in bullish crossover support upward continuation. Breakout with follow-through and rising volume indicate strength.
Risk factors: Breakdown below ₹4,630 with volume may invalidate pattern. Market-wide weakness or financial sector pullback could affect performance.
Buy at: ₹4,702.00
Target price: ₹4,850– ₹4,880 in 4–5 days
Stop loss: ₹4,630
Buy: Petronet LNG Ltd (current price: ₹319.80)
Why it’s recommended: On the daily chart, the stock has given a flag pattern breakout, indicating continuation of the prior uptrend. On the lower timeframe, after making a recent high of ₹325, the stock has retraced to an important demand zone, where a bounce back is expected, potentially leading to new highs toward ₹330 levels.
Key metrics: Resistance level: ₹328– ₹330 (supply zone) | Support level: ₹313 (demand zone) | Pattern: Flag breakout + pullback | Volume: Positive during breakout
Technical analysis: Price is trading above key moving averages. The breakout from a bullish flag pattern and the retest of demand area support further upside. Price structure remains intact with strong momentum cues on intraday charts.
Risk factors: Breakdown below ₹313 with volume may invalidate the setup. Sector rotation or market-wide profit-booking could delay the expected bounce.
Buy at: ₹319.80
Target price: ₹328– ₹330 in 4–5 days
Stop loss: ₹313
Buy: NBCC (India) Ltd (current price: ₹106.70)
Why it’s recommended: On the daily chart, the stock has formed a flag breakout, indicating continuation of the prior uptrend. On the lower timeframe, after a decent rally, the stock witnessed some selling pressure, but it has now approached a potential reversal zone, from where a bounce back is expected.
Key metrics: Resistance level: ₹113– ₹115 (supply zone) | Support level: ₹102 (recent pullback low) | Pattern: Flag breakout + pullback | Volume: Healthy during breakout
Technical analysis: Price structure remains positive above major moving averages. The flag pattern breakout, followed by a mild correction, strengthens the case for a renewed upside. The lower timeframe suggests a possible short-term reversal from current levels.
Risk factors: Breakdown below ₹102 with volume may negate the bullish setup. Broader market weakness or lack of volume confirmation may impact near-term performance.
Buy at: ₹106.70
Target price: ₹113– ₹115 in 4–5 days
Stop loss: ₹102
Market update: Rocket recovery after choppy start
The BSE Sensex surged 1,200.18 points or 1.48% to close at 82,530.74, while the Bank Nifty also joined the rally, gaining 554.30 points or 1.01% to end at 55,355.60. The rebound was broad-based and driven by strong buying across sectors.
INDIAVIX cooled off during the day, reflecting reduced fear and growing confidence among market participants. The fall in volatility further supported the risk-on sentiment, especially in the second half of the session.
On the downside, the Nifty 50 is expected to find immediate support around 25,000–24,800, in line with options concentration and technical strength. The index now eyes 25,125 as the next immediate hurdle, with further upside potential toward 25,300–25,400 if momentum continues.
Sectoral performance
The rally was well-supported by a strong sectoral performance, with all major sectors closing in the green.
The auto sector rose 1.92%, driven by robust demand forecasts and positive developments in the EV segment.
The realty sector also gained 1.92%, with renewed buying in housing finance and commercial real estate counters.
The metal sector climbed 1.74%, backed by firm global commodity prices and a positive export outlook.
Top gainers
Hero MotoCorp surged 6.34%, supported by strong global cues and rising optimism in the EV space.
JSW Steel rallied 4.95%, as metal stocks witnessed heavy buying amid a rebound in global steel prices.
Tata Motors advanced 4.17%, fueled by large order announcements and optimistic sentiment ahead of quarterly results.
Top loser
There were no significant losers in Thursday’s rally.
IndusInd Bank was the only Nifty component to end marginally lower, slipping 0.11%, likely on account of mild profit-booking after recent gains and subdued banking action during the first half.
Nifty technical analysis daily and hourly
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On the daily charts, the index has formed a large green-bodied candle with strong volumes, marking the highest close since the 15 October 2024 fall. The breakout above the key resistance of 25,000 indicates bullish strength. Immediate resistance now lies at 25,125, and a sustained move above this level may trigger further upside toward 25,300–25,400. Meanwhile, 25,000 has now become a near-term support, followed by 24,800.
INDIAVIX eased further by -1.93% to 16.89, reflecting reduced fear and growing confidence among traders. While volatility has cooled, VIX still remains above ultra-comfort zones, suggesting selective caution near overhead resistance. On the downside, the index is expected to find support around 25,000–24,800, supported by both technical levels and Put OI build-up, keeping the bias mildly bullish with a buy-on-dips approach.
On the daily chart, the Nifty continues to trade well above the 20-day and 40-day moving averages placed at 24,315 and 23,875, respectively, confirming the bullish structure. On the hourly chart, it is also comfortably placed above the 20-hour and 40-hour EMAs at 24,725 and 24,636, reflecting strong short-term momentum. No fresh moving average crossovers have occurred, but the trend remains firmly positive.
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The daily momentum indicator RSI stands at 66, suggesting strength without being overbought, while the MACD remains in a bullish crossover, supporting the ongoing rally.
Derivatives and open interest (OI) summary
The Put–Call Ratio (PCR–OI) has improved slightly, signalling a shift toward bullish sentiment. The Max Pain level currently stands at 25,000, with significant OI concentration at the 25,000 strike on both the Call and Put sides—making it a critical pivot zone. On the Call side, fresh writing is visible at 25,200 CE and 25,500 CE, while the Put side shows aggressive writing at 25,000 PE and 24,900 PE, reinforcing strong support in the 24,900–25,000 range.
Futures OI data indicates a mix of short covering and fresh long build-up, aligning with a neutral to slightly bullish stance. FIIs have increased net long exposure in index futures, while retail and proprietary traders continue to hold a balanced mix of directional and hedged positions.
The overall setup indicates that the short-term trend has shifted to buy-on-dips, with 24,800–25,000 acting as a strong support zone and 25,300–25,400 likely to cap the upside unless fresh triggers emerge.
Ankush Bajaj is a Sebi-registered research analyst. His registration number is INH000010441.
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Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
