The Nifty 50 slipped 19.80 points or 0.08% to close at 24,634.90, while the BSE Sensex fell 61.52 points or 0.08% to settle at 80,364.94. Nifty Bank, however, bucked the trend, adding 71.65 points or 0.13% to finish at 54,461.00.
Ankush Bajaj’s top 3 stock picks for 30 September
Buy: Hindustan Petroleum Corp. Ltd (Current price: ₹441.75)
Why HPCL is recommended: HPCL is displaying renewed bullish momentum as oil marketing companies benefit from stable crude prices and improving refining margins. On the daily chart, the RSI is in positive territory, confirming strong momentum. The MACD is in buy mode, reinforcing the bullish setup, while ADX indicates strengthening trend conditions. Price action shows the stock holding above its key short-term averages, suggesting further upside.
Key metrics
RSI (14-day): Positive—bullish momentum intact
MACD (12,26): Positive—supporting uptrend continuation
ADX (14): Improving—trend strength building
Technical view: Sustaining above ₹432 keeps the structure constructive, with potential to rally toward ₹460.
Risk factors: Volatility in crude oil prices can directly impact marketing margins. Government price controls and excise duties can weigh on profitability.
Buy at: ₹441.75
Stop loss: ₹432
Target price: ₹460
Buy: Bharat Petroleum Corp. Ltd (Current price: ₹338.10)
Why BPCL is recommended: BPCL has been consolidating near recent highs and is now showing breakout signs with supportive technical indicators. The RSI is firm in bullish territory, the MACD has crossed into positive alignment, and the ADX signals a strengthening trend. Alongside steady refining spreads, the technical setup favors a near-term upward move.
Key metrics
RSI (14-day): Positive—constructive momentum
MACD (12,26): Positive—bullish bias reinforced
ADX (14): Stronger—indicating trend strength
Technical view: Holding above ₹332 will keep the bullish bias intact, opening up for a move toward ₹348.
Risk factors: Exposure to crude oil volatility and forex fluctuations. Government intervention in fuel pricing can cap gains.
Buy at: ₹338.10
Stop loss: ₹332
Target price: ₹348
Buy: Indian Bank (Current Price: ₹724.60)
Why Indian Bank is recommended: Indian Bank has shown strong relative strength within PSU banks, supported by rising credit growth and improving asset quality trends. The RSI indicates bullish momentum, the MACD is in positive crossover mode, and the ADX signals a robust trend. Price action suggests the stock is moving higher within an established uptrend.
Key metrics
RSI (14-day): Positive—bullish momentum
MACD (12,26): Positive—confirming uptrend
ADX (14): Strong—trend well established
Technical view: Sustaining above ₹712 supports the bullish structure, with scope to rally toward ₹747.
Risk factors: PSU banks remain exposed to credit cycle risks. Rising bond yields or rate volatility may weigh on NIMs.
Buy at: ₹724.60
Stop loss: ₹712
Target price: ₹747
Market wrap: 30 September
Among sectors, the PSU Bank index surged 1.78% on Monday, the Oil & Gas index advanced 1.35%, and the PSE index gained 1.17%.
On the downside, the Auto index eased 0.18%, the Pharma index fell 0.15%, and the Healthcare index declined 0.08%.
In stock-specific action, Titan (+2.22%), Wipro (+1.61%), and SBI (+1.65%) provided support. Meanwhile, losses in Axis Bank (-1.89%), Maruti Suzuki (-1.85%), and Dr. Reddy’s (-1.48%) dragged the broader indices lower.
Nifty technical analysis—daily and hourly
The Nifty 50 continued to remain under pressure in the previous session, reflecting weak momentum as selling persisted at higher levels.
On the daily chart, the index is struggling to hold ground above its critical medium-term moving averages, with the 20-DMA at 24,975 and the 40-DEMA at 24,925 now acting as overhead resistance zones.
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Momentum indicators highlight a weakening structure—the daily RSI has slipped to 38, indicating bearish sentiment, while the MACD, though still slightly positive at +11, is showing signs of flattening, pointing to fading strength.
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On the intraday charts, the short-term picture is more fragile. The index is sustaining below the 40-HEMA at 24,909, while the 20-HMA at 24,783 is offering little support. The hourly RSI at 36 remains weak, and the hourly MACD at –108 confirms bearish momentum, suggesting limited upside unless buyers return aggressively.
The derivatives setup mirrors this cautious stance.
Total Call OI stands at 26.75 crore versus Put OI of 16.52 crore, leaving a large negative OI differential of –10.23 crore, which signals strong overhead supply. The highest Call OI is concentrated at the 25,000 strike, reinforcing it as a stiff resistance zone, while fresh additions were notable at the 24,700 strike, indicating near-term supply pressure.
On the Put side, the heaviest OI and additions were seen at the 24,000 strike, establishing it as the immediate strong support zone. Interestingly, despite the overall bearish OI structure, the day’s change data showed Put OI additions of 2.46 crore against marginal Call unwinding, giving a positive differential of +2.55 crore—hinting at some short-term defensive positioning by traders.
Overall view: The Nifty remains under pressure, with momentum indicators weak and derivatives data signaling heavy resistance at 24,700-25,000. Immediate support lies at 24,600-24,500, and if broken, the decline could extend toward 24,200-24,000.
On the upside, only a decisive close above 24,900–25,000 would revive confidence and negate the current bearish bias. Until then, the short-term outlook stays bearish with chances of minor relief bounces, while the broader structure remains fragile.
Ankush Bajaj is a Sebi-registered research analyst. His registration number is INH000010441.
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Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
