With the psychological support of 25,000 now broken and bearish momentum gaining ground, traders and investors alike are watching for fresh cues on where markets may be headed next.
Top 3 stock picks by Ankush Bajaj – September 29, 2025
Buy: Torrent Pharmaceuticals Ltd — Current Price: ₹3,561.00
Why it’s recommended: Torrent Pharma has been showing steady strength, trading near recent highs with bullish momentum. The daily technical indicators confirm sustained buying interest, with momentum oscillators holding firm and the broader structure favoring continuation of the uptrend.
Key metrics: RSI (14-day): Positive — momentum constructive
MACD (12,26): Positive — trend bias intact
ADX (14): Healthy — trend showing strength
Technical view: As long as the stock sustains above ₹3,543 (0.5% stop-loss), the bullish setup remains intact, with potential to rally toward ₹3,596 (1% upside target).
Risk factors: Pharma sector is sensitive to regulatory approvals and USFDA actions.
Currency fluctuations may impact export earnings.
Buy at: ₹3,561.00
Stop loss: ₹3,543.00
Target price: ₹3,596.00
Buy: Kfin Technologies Ltd — Current Price: ₹1,070.80
Why it’s recommended: Kfin Technologies has been in a strong upward trajectory, supported by improving investor flows and positive sectoral tailwinds in financial services. Price action continues to hold above key supports, confirming strength.
Key metrics: RSI (14-day): Positive — steady bullish momentum
MACD (12,26): Positive — supporting trend continuation
ADX (14): Firm — trend gaining strength
Technical view: Holding above ₹1,065 (0.5% stop-loss) strengthens the setup, with scope to move toward ₹1,081 (1% upside target).
Risk factors: Sensitive to regulatory changes in capital markets and asset servicing business.
Dependence on sustained inflows into mutual funds and financial services.
Buy at: ₹1,070.80
Stop loss: ₹1,065.00
Target price: ₹1,081.00
Buy: Maruti Suzuki India Ltd — Current Price: ₹16,286.00
Why it’s recommended: Maruti Suzuki continues to trade strong near lifetime highs, supported by sectoral optimism including GST rate cuts benefiting auto demand. The daily RSI is at 80, indicating strong bullish momentum though in the overbought zone. The MACD at +587 confirms trend continuation, while the ADX at 63 signals very strong trend strength. Despite overextension, price action shows firm demand, suggesting further upside potential.
Key metrics: RSI (14-day): 80 — overbought but bullish momentum intact
MACD (12,26): +587 — strong upward confirmation
ADX (14): 63 — powerful trend strength
Technical view: Sustaining above ₹16,205 (0.5% stop loss) keeps the bullish bias intact, with potential to rally toward ₹16,449 (1% upside target) in the near term.
Risk factors: RSI shows overbought conditions; vulnerable to profit booking.
Auto sector sensitive to input costs and regulatory changes.
Buy at: ₹16,286.00
Stop loss: ₹16,205.00
Target price: ₹16,449.00
Market wrap – September 29, 2025 (Monday)
The NIFTY 50 dropped 236.15 points or 0.95% to close at 24,654.70, reinforcing the bearish breakdown. The BSE SENSEX fell sharply by 733.22 points or 0.90% to settle at 80,426.46, while the NIFTY BANK cracked 586.85 points or 1.07% to finish at 54,389.35, highlighting heavy weakness in financial majors.
Sectoral performance remained grim with no sector managing to end in green. The Pharma index lost 2.14%, the Healthcare index shed 2.06%, and the Metal index declined 1.93%, reflecting broad-based selling pressure.
In stock-specific action, a handful of counters bucked the trend—L&T surged 2.34%, while Tata Motors gained 1.29% and ITC added 1.25%. On the downside, heavyweights dragged the market lower with IndusInd Bank falling 3.78%, M&M slipping 3.78%, and Eternal tumbling 3.79%.
Nifty technical analysis – daily & hourly
The Nifty 50 closed sharply lower on September 26, 2025, losing 236.15 points or 0.95% to settle at 24,654.70, marking its third consecutive session of weakness. The decisive breakdown below the psychological 25,000 mark and subsequent follow-through selling underscores the dominance of bears, with pressure building across heavyweights.
On the daily chart, the index is now trading well below its medium-term moving averages, with the 20-DMA at 24,974 and 40-DEMA at 24,940 acting as strong overhead resistance. Momentum indicators have deteriorated further: the RSI has slipped to 39, moving into bearish territory, while the MACD has eased to +45, still positive but rapidly losing strength. This suggests that while the broader uptrend bias is weakening, short-term downside risk remains elevated.
On the hourly chart, the situation looks more fragile. Nifty is sustaining below both the 20-HMA (24,916) and 40-HEMA (25,000), confirming intraday weakness. The hourly RSI has plunged to 21, deep in oversold territory, while the MACD at –131 remains sharply negative, reinforcing strong short-term bearish momentum. This opens the possibility of minor relief bounces, but the overall bias stays negative.
The derivatives data paints a strongly bearish picture. Total Call OI at 28.04 crore far outweighs Put OI at 15.01 crore, creating a heavy negative differential of –13.03 crore. Fresh additions also confirm the bearish bias: Call OI rose by 4.79 crore, while Put OI increased only 1.73 crore, leaving a negative OI change differential of –3.06 crore. The 25,000 strike remains the heaviest Call base, with aggressive additions also at the 24,800 strike, cementing these zones as stiff resistance. On the downside, the maximum Put OI is concentrated at 24,500, while fresh additions at the 24,600 strike suggest that traders are trying to defend this immediate support zone.
Overall view
The Nifty has entered a vulnerable phase as it trades well below 25,000 and key moving averages. Immediate support is now placed at 24,600–24,500, and a breach below this zone could accelerate the decline towards 24,300–24,200. On the upside, 24,800–25,000 has become a strong resistance zone, and only a decisive close above 25,000 would negate the current bearish bias.
With daily RSI slipping into bearish territory, hourly momentum indicators deeply oversold, and derivatives data showing aggressive Call writing, the short-term outlook remains bearish with a risk of further downside. Relief bounces are possible due to oversold hourly readings, but until Nifty reclaims 25,000, rallies are likely to face selling pressure.
Ankush Bajaj is a Sebi-registered research analyst. His registration number is INH000010441.
Investments in securities are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.
Registration granted by Sebi and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
