The original cryptocurrency is having another great year, with its price up more than 27%. On Friday, Bitcoin traded at $119,023, up 0.5% for the day, and only about 3% below its July 14 all-time high of $123,166. The price peg’s Bitcoin’s total market cap at $2.3 trillion. If Bitcoin were a stock, that would rank it sixth in the S&P 500, behind Google parent Alphabet and in front of Meta, according to FactSet data.
Given all the excitement, Wall Street analysts are scrambling to put a target price on the surging asset. On Thursday, Citigroup Global Markets offered investors a framework for understanding Bitcoin’s price, based on criteria like demand and macro-economic factors. But the result wasn’t going to change many minds: Citi offered a bull case of $199,000, representing a gain of about 70% from today’s price and a bear case of $64,000, suggesting a 50% decline.
It’s hard to blame Citibank’s analysts for trying to cover their bases. So many of the arguments in favor of Bitcoin tend to fall back on themselves—and yet the price marches ever upwards.
Take Bitcoin’s latest price driver: Action in Washington. Last week President Trump signed the Genius Act, a bill designed to regulate stable coins, a form of cryptocurrency backed by real assets. Lawmakers may soon advance the Clarity Act, which is designed to resolve the question of whether regulators should treat cryptocurrencies as commodities or securities. There is even talk of crypto in 401(k)s.
It’s true those developments could all further mainstream adoption. Yet for anyone who has followed the crypto industry’s rhetoric over the past decade, it’s a little hard not to blanch at all the cheering over victories in Washington. The original aim of Bitcoin—and its cri de coeur—was to be a store of value whose price was immune to government meddling.
Bitcoin’s scarcity, amid the growing demand for digital assets, is another key explanation for the rally. But this argument is thorny too. Bitcoin boosters are fond of repeating that there will never be more than 21 million Bitcoins, while regular “halvings” make Bitcoin less and less lucrative to mine.
Meanwhile, demand for Bitcoin has skyrocketed in the past year thanks to the advent of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, which make it far easier for mainstream investors to bet on the cryptocurrency. The largest of these, the iShares Bitcoin Trust, has grabbed nearly $38 billion in investor dollars in the past 12 months and nearly $6 billion in the last month alone.
But can this potent mix of scarcity and demand continue? While the number of Bitcoins is fixed, there is no limit on the number of copy-cat coins. CoinMarketCap tracks more than 18 million coins, according to its website, with a total market value of $1.5 trillion.
So far the SEC has cleared spot ETFs for only the two most valuable cryptos: Bitcoin and Ethereum. But boosters of offerings such as XRP, Litecoin and Solana are clamoring for their own spot ETFs. Washington’s new crypto-friendly attitude suggests they will soon get them.
Of course, a flood of new crypto ETFs won’t necessarily dampen investors’ appetite for Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s status and mystique as the original crypto has so far ensured it remains more valuable than its many imitators. But the potential flood does suggest that hype, more than limited supply, is what supports Bitcoin’s price.
Arguments for why investors should own Bitcoin (other than price speculation) are also shaky. Unlike stocks and bonds, Bitcoin doesn’t throw off any cash flows. No matter, supporters have long argued. Bitcoin still has a role in your portfolio as a store of value, a form of “digital gold.”
It’s a view that has led some large investing firms (including Bitcoin ETF sponsors BlackRock and Fidelity) to advocate investors should consider devoting at least a small share of their overall portfolio, say 1% to 2%, to Bitcoin, to boost diversification.
The Bitcoin-as-diversifier notion mirrors the longstanding arguments made in favor of owning actual gold—but there are problems with this thesis too. It’s true that returns for Bitcoin and gold have resembled one another over the past year. They are both in the midst of big rallies. But, then so are plenty of risk-on assets, notably U.S. growth stocks, led by big U.S. technology names.
While gold isn’t a perfect hedge against stock-market declines, its reputation as a haven during times of macroeconomic turmoil has been established by academic studies looking at decades of returns. Bitcoin, invented in 2008, boasts no such extensive record. In fact, one recent study (again by BlackRock) found that, although Bitcoin’s volatility had recently lessened, the coin remained about four times more volatile than gold.
When the next bear market comes it seems likely investors will flee speculative assets like Bitcoin and tech stocks, not run to them for shelter.
Where will Bitcoin go next? Prices may continue to march higher, just because they always have. But the arguments in favor of still-bigger gains still don’t give much confidence—making sense only if you close one eye and wish away all the contradictions.
Write to Ian Salisbury at ian.salisbury@barrons.com
