Trade Brains Portal recommends two stocks, one from the sugar sector and another from the microfinance sector.
Stocks to trade today, recommended by Trade Brains Portal for 12 June:
Dalmia Bharat Sugar & Industries Ltd (Current price: ₹ 437)
- Target price: ₹520 in 12 months
- Stop-loss: ₹ 395
- Why Dalmia Bharat Sugar & Industries is recommended: The company ventured into the sugar business in the mid-90s, and the first unit was set up at Ramgarh, UP, in 1994. It is among the youngest and largest sugar companies in India, engaged in the manufacturing of sugar, industrial alcohol, and refractory products as well as the generation of power.
It has a total cane crushing capacity of 43,200 tonnes of cane per day (TCD), which makes it one of the leading sugar producers in the country. It is now a fully integrated player with 126 MW of cogeneration capacity and a distillery of 850 KLPD or kilo liters per day along with incineration boilers.
In FY25, the company reported revenue from operations of ₹3,746 crore, reflecting a robust YoY growth of 29%. Its EBITDA stood at ₹544 crore, and PAT at ₹387 crore. The company achieved an all-time high domestic sugar sales volume of 5.9 LMT (lakh metric tonne), leading to a significant reduction in year-end sugar inventory to 3.8 LMT, down from 4.3 LMT in FY24.
It reported an all-time high average sales realization of ₹38/kg. The grain distillery delivered 6.2 crore litres in FY25, a significant increase of 72% YoY, driven by capacity expansion. The company has reported an increase of 22% in domestic sales from 1.1 lakh MT in Q3 FY25 to 1.4 lakh MT in Q4 FY25 and a 100% jump in export sales to 0.1 lakh MT as compared to the previous quarter.
India is the world’s largest producer of sugar, with Uttar Pradesh being the leading sugarcane producer, followed by Maharashtra and Karnataka, and the third largest exporter of sugar in the world. The USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) projected the sugar production of India to touch 35 million metric tonne raw value (MMT-RV) for the year 25-26 (marketing year), which reflects a 26% increase compared to the revised 28 million-ton estimate for the current year.
- Risk Factor: The sugar industry is cyclical and highly dependent on favourable weather, agricultural yields, and cane availability. Therefore, irregular monsoons or reduced yields may negatively affect Dalmia’s operations. Furthermore, the government oversees the sugar sector through the Sugar (Control) Order, which mandates stock maintenance, transportation, and sugar sales, while also controlling prices using a fair and remunerative price (FRP) system for sugarcane. Consequently, any non-compliance with these regulations could impact the company.
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CreditAccess Grameen Ltd (Current price: ₹ 1,222)
- Target price: ₹1,420 in 12 months
- Stop-loss: ₹ 1,123
- Why CreditAccess Grameen is recommended: CreditAccess Grameen was established in 1999 as an NGO in Bengaluru, and in 2007, the microfinance operations were transferred into an NBFC. It offers collateral-free microloans to women from low-income households under the joint liability group model. Apart from the microloans, it is also increasing its portfolio by providing retail finance products to existing customers. As of FY25, the company is the largest MFI in India, which has 46.94 lakh borrowers and an AUM of ₹25,948 crore. It has a presence in over 16 states, 423 districts, and 2,063 branches as of March 2025.
The company has been growing its AUM at a healthy rate of 18% CAGR since FY21.
It has a controlled cost of borrowings due to a diversified borrowing profile, which lets the company enjoy a net interest margin (NIM) of 12.9% in FY25. It has successfully controlled its cost-to-income ratio; the company reduced it from 38.1% in FY21 to 30.7% in FY25. Although there was a dip in profit due to increased provisioning, the company still sees good growth in its pre-provisioning profit, which grew by 10.3% YoY. The company is planning to increase its retail finance segment contribution and increase the retail portfolio to 10%-15% of the AUM by FY28.
Due to conservative provisioning and strong risk management capabilities, even in adverse situations like over-leveraged borrowers, political movements, and disruption of operations in Karnataka due to the implementation of the microfinance bill, the company stood at a reasonably good asset quality, with NNPA of 1.73%. Management gave guidance on gross loan portfolio (GLP) growth of 14-18% for FY26, with NIM expected to be stable at 12.6-12.8%.
- Risk Factor: Credit Access’ gross loan portfolio is dominated by Karnataka with 31.1%, followed by Maharashtra with 21.5% and Tamil Nadu with 19%, as of Q4FY25. This could lead to geographical concentration risk as the GLP of the NBFC is dominated by the top three states, with around 71.6%. Furthermore, the Karnataka MFI ordinance and similar regulations in Tamil Nadu are likely to increase delinquencies for CreditAccess Grameen (CAGL) in these states, although the overall business is expected to normalize.
Market Recap
The Nifty 50 ended the day upside after opening above the 20-day EMA today at 25,134.15, rising to 25,222.40, and closing at 25,141.40. The BSE Sensex showed a positive trend, rising 123.42 points, or 0.15%, from the opening of 82,473.02 to its closing at 82,515.14.
With the Nifty 50 RSI at 62.26 and the BSE Sensex RSI at 60.67 (far below the overbought threshold of 70), both indices were trading above all four EMAs (20/50/100/200). Both the benchmark indices held gains mildly due to profit bookings also remaining positive, driven by monetary policy and global cues, one of which is US-China trade talks, encouraging the market reaction.
The Nifty Oil & Gas index was the biggest gainer on the sectoral front, closing at 11,725.50, up 169.30 points, or 1.47%. The key oil and gas companies, such as GAIL, Bharat Petroleum, Hindustan Petroleum, and Oil India, saw gains of up to 6.5%.
This comes after the major state-run refineries plan to build the fuel transportation infrastructure by ordering ten domestically built vessels to transport fuel throughout the nation. Later this year, a joint tender for medium-range vessels worth approximately $600 million will be issued, with deliveries starting in 2028.
The Nifty IT index closed at 38,784.30 after rising 484.35 points, or 1.26%. Wipro, Tech Mahindra, Infosys, and HCL Technologies were leaders in this sector, with gains of up to 3.3%. The Nifty PSU Bank index, on the other hand, closed at 7,107.75 after falling -63.10 points, or -0.88%. The index declined as a result of losses of more than 2% at Punjab and Sind Bank, 1.91% at Indian Overseas Bank, and 1.85% at Bank of India. Furthermore, the Nifty FMCG Index ended the day lower at 55,820, down -378.20 points, or -0.67%.
The US-China trade talks resulted in an agreement, and Asian markets responded well on Wednesday. In the Asia-Pacific markets, the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong gained 0.84%, or 204.07 points, to close at 24,366.94, while the Kospi index in South Korea maintained its upward trend, rising 1.23%, or 35.19 points, to close at 2,907.04. The Shanghai index rose 0.52%, or 17.5 points, to close at 3,402.32, and the Nikkei 225 in Japan gained 0.55%, or 209.68 points, to close at 38,428.19.
The US Dow Jones Futures fell -81 points, or -0.2%, to close at 42,824, reflecting investors’ lukewarm response over the new trade deal between the US and China was observed in the US market, as attention is still focused on the monthly reading of US consumer prices, which is crucial for assessing inflation and the effects of the punishing tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump.
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