Stock market today: India’s main stock indices opened lower on Monday, reflecting declines across Asia following renewed tariff threats from the United States against China, while investors looked ahead to the launch of Tata Capital, marking the largest IPO in the country for 2025 to date.
The Nifty 50 decreased by 0.34% to 25,201.15, while the BSE Sensex dropped 0.32% to 82,257.37 at 9:21 IST. On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump vowed to significantly increase tariffs on China in response to its restrictions on essential mineral exports.
Escalating trade tensions between the two largest global economies could lead to rising inflation in the U.S. and may push the Federal Reserve to postpone interest rate cuts, experts suggest.
High U.S. interest rates are unfavorable for emerging market stocks like those in India, as they render dollar investments and Treasury yields more appealing to international investors.
Market Outlook by Dharmesh Shah, Vice President, ICICI Securities
Equity benchmarks wrapped up the volatile week on a positive trajectory, aided by encouraging quarterly business update. The Nifty 50 gained ~1.7% to settle the week at 25,315. Sectorally, IT, Realty and Pharma outshone. The weekly price action formed a bull candle, indicating continuation of upward momentum.
Key point to highlight is that, follow through strength to last week’s gains helped index to clear the hurdle of 25,200 as bulls tighten the grip on multiple sectors carrying 2/3 of the index weightage. We expect Nifty 50 to gradually head towards short term milestone of 25,800 with elevated support at 24,700 which is 80% retracement of the current upmove. In the process, bouts of volatility amid global development as well as ongoing earning season cannot be ruled out which would offer incremental buying opportunity.
Our positive bias is further validated by following observations:
- The faster pace of retracement in Bank Nifty helped index to resolve out of 2 months high. The banking internals like private banks, PSU Banks, NBFC’s are showing structural improvement that makes us believe, Bank Nifty is gearing up to challenge it’s All Time high of 57,600 in coming months.
- The index heavy weight Banking index along with Oil & Gas have surpassed their 2 months high. Further, following the auto index, Metal index has clocked a fresh All-time high. Meanwhile, Capital goods, Consumption, Pharma, Power indices are undergoing higher base formation. Cumulatively, these indices carries more than two third weightage of Nifty 50 that corroborates with our positive stance.
- Structurally, Index staged a strong rebound after approaching maturity of price and time wise correction. Further, seasonality favours bulls in October month that would pave the way for Nifty 50 challenging All Time high of 26,300 by the year end.
- Market breadth witnessed month-on-month improvement on the ratio chart as rising ratio line of stocks making new 52 weeks high vs new 52 weeks low (Universe: Nifty 50) signifies broadening of the rally.
Key Monitorable:
a. US and India inflation print.
b. Beginning of Q2FY26 earning season.
c. Development on tariff negotiations.
d. Gold: With > 50% up move in this year the monthly RSI has surpassed 90 levels for the first time since 1980. Such overbought conditions suggest possibility of short-term breather wherein Gold can consolidate in $4100-$3700 range.
Stocks To Buy This Week – Dharmesh Shah
Dharmesh Shah of ICICI Securities recommends buying Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), and JSW Energy Ltd.
Buy RIL shares in the range of ₹1,345-1,385. He has RIL share price target of ₹1,528 with a stop loss of ₹1,267.
Buy JSW Energy shares in the range of ₹536-546. He has JSW Energy share price target of ₹598 with a stop loss of ₹525.
Disclaimer: The Research Analyst or his relatives or I-Sec do not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company, at the end of 10/10/2025 or have no other financial interest and do not have any material conflict of interest.
The views and recommendations provided in this analysis are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We strongly advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and individual circumstances may vary.
