The Nifty 50 surged 239 points (0.97%) to settle convincingly above the key technical resistance at 24,850.6, while the Sensex recorded a robust gain of 754 points, closing at 81,022.58. The central bank’s decision to maintain the repo rate at 5.50% was less impactful than its forward guidance, which included an upward revision of the FY26 GDP growth forecast to 6.8% and a cut in the CPI inflation projection to 2.6%.
This optimistic outlook, coupled with pro-market measures such as the liberalisation of limits on loans against shares and IPO financing, fueled broad-based buying. Financial services and banking stocks led the charge, with Nifty Bank rising more than 1.2%.
Two stock recommendations for today by MarketSmith India
Buy: Ami Organics Ltd (current price: ₹1,380)
- Why it’s recommended: Strong R&D & innovation capability, Diversified product portfolio, Export / global customer base diversification, Expansion into new growth verticals
- Key metrics: P/E: 56.86, 52-week high: ₹ 2,644, volume: ₹ 26.88 crore
- Technical analysis: Reclaimed 50 DMA
- Risk factors: Volatility / fluctuation in raw material costs, Foreign exchange risk, Execution risk in ongoing capex, Regulatory / environmental / compliance risk
- Buy: ₹ 1,370-1,400
- Target price: ₹1,580 in two to three months
- Stop loss: ₹1,288
Buy: Housing & Urban Development Corporation Limited (current price: ₹232.50)
- Why it’s recommended: Strategic Role in Urban & Social Housing Programs, Expanding AUM via Infrastructure Finance & NBFC-IFC Status
- Key metrics: P/E: 16.09; 52-week high: ₹354; volume: ₹400 crore
- Technical analysis: Breakout restest
- Risk factors: Concentration Risk & Exposure to State Finances, Modest Yield & Thin Margins
- Buy at: ₹228-234
- Target price: ₹265 in two to three months
- Stop loss: ₹ 218
How the market performed on 1 October
Markets rebounded sharply on Wednesday, with the Nifty 50 gaining 0.9% to close above 24,800 and the Sensex rising nearly 700 points, snapping an eight-day losing streak.
Strength in banks and financials led the rally, supported by RBI’s steady policy stance and favourable liquidity cues. NBFCs, capital goods, and metals also advanced, the latter aided by global commodity strength, while oil & gas posted modest gains.
In contrast, IT and pharma underperformed on global demand concerns and regulatory pressures, and FMCG lagged as defensives lost favor. Market breadth was strong, with a positive advance-decline ratio highlighting healthy participation from mid- and small-caps.
The Nifty 50 snapped its eight-day losing streak, staging a rebound from the 24,600–24,550 support zone, which has held firm over the past four sessions and is emerging as a key near-term base. Intraday, the index attempted to reclaim its 50-day moving average (50-DMA) but failed to close above it, suggesting that sustained strength is yet to be confirmed. The 14-period RSI has bounced off oversold levels, though it remains capped below its earlier downward sloping trendline, limiting bullish conviction. Meanwhile, the MACD continues to trend negative, reinforcing caution on the sustainability of this rebound.
According to O’Neil’s methodology of market direction, the market status has been downgraded to an “Uptrend Under Pressure” as Nifty breached its “50-DMA” and the “distribution day count” is at one.
The Nifty 50 snapped its eight-session losing streak and staged a strong reversal, offering near-term relief. The last three sessions’ price action reaffirms 24,550–24,600 as a critical support zone. A decisive close below this range could accelerate selling pressure, dragging the index toward 24,500–24,450.On the upside, the index has so far failed to reclaim its 50-DMA, indicating that 24,850–24,950 will be the next key resistance zone. A sustained close above this band would likely strengthen momentum and open the path toward 25,300 in the coming sessions.
How did Nifty Bank perform?
Nifty Bank opened on a positive note but oscillated between gains and losses before before settling firmly in the green. On the daily chart, the index formed a bullish candle with a higher high–higher low structure, while also reclaiming its 21-DMA, 50-DMA, and 100-DMA levels, signaling strengthening technical sentiment. It recorded an intraday high of 55,406.75 and a low of 54,582.55, eventually closing at 55,347.95.
The price action highlights robust buying interest and suggests the possibility of sustained momentum if follow-through strength materializes. Market confidence was further supported by the RBI’s decision to maintain policy rates, which eased inflation concerns and ensured liquidity support, while relaxed acquisition lending norms boosted sentiment in banking and financial stocks.
Momentum indicators reflect underlying caution despite the positive close. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has inched up to 55, suggesting that upside momentum is gradually improving but not yet strong. At the same time, the MACD remains positioned below its central line, though it has formed a positive crossover. This indicates that while short-term sentiment is turning constructive, overall strength in the broader market setup remains limited, warranting a cautious approach until stronger confirmation emerges.
From a technical standpoint, Nifty Bank closed at 55,347.95, surpassing its immediate resistance with a positive bias and ending the session above all key moving averages, signaling renewed optimism in the market. The breakout suggests that sustained buying momentum could drive the index higher toward the 56,000–56,500 zone in the coming sessions.
On the downside, immediate support is placed between 54,200 and 54,500. A decisive breach of this range may trigger volatility and invite profit booking, potentially disrupting the current bullish sentiment. Overall, the index’s positioning indicates strength, but caution is warranted around key support levels.
MarketSmith India is a stock research platform and advisory service focused on the Indian stock market. It offers tools and resources to help investors make informed decisions based on the CAN SLIM methodology, founded by legendary investor William J. O’Neil. You can access a 10-day free trial by registering on its website.
Trade name: William O’Neil India Pvt. Ltd.
Sebi Registration No.: INH000015543
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
