Silver inventories on the Commodity Exchange, Inc. (COMEX) and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) have declined sharply, reflecting sustained drawdowns across key global trading hubs.
Total COMEX silver inventories as of February 26 fell to 360.64 million ounces, a drop of 1.21 million ounces, or 0.33% from the previous day. This is a sharp fall of 32% from approximately 532 million ounces in October 2025.
As of February 26, total silver inventories at COMEX stood at 360.64 million ounces, marking a decline of 1.21 million ounces, or 0.33%, from the previous day. The latest figure represents a steep 32% contraction from the approximately 532 million ounces recorded in October 2025.
Registered silver stocks at COMEX — metal readily available for delivery — slipped below the critical 90 million-ounce threshold to 86,130,399.161 ounces, down 0.18% on a day-on-day basis. Meanwhile, eligible inventories fell by 1.05 million ounces, or 0.38%, to 274,508,536.274 ounces, according to official data.
Registered silver carries a warrant and is available for delivery against futures contracts, while eligible silver meets COMEX specifications but is not currently warranted for delivery.
Silver Inventories on Shanghai Futures Exchange
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), silver available for delivery also continued to trend lower. Data from CEIC showed that exchange inventories declined to 346.369 tonnes as of February 25, compared with 355.830 tonnes a day earlier. Notably, silver stocks had dropped to 318.546 tonnes on February 9 — the lowest level since 2015.
SHFE silver inventories remain significantly below historical highs. Current stockpiles are nearly 89% lower than the record peak of 3,091.112 tonnes recorded on January 12, 2021, highlighting the substantial drawdown in China’s exchange-held silver inventories over the past several years.
Nirpendra Yadav, Sr. Commodity Research Analyst at Bonanza said that the fall in silver inventories suggests actual physical supply is scarce relative to demand. He noted that in recent months, structural deficits (industrial use — solar, electronics, EVs — still outpacing mine supply) add to tightness, such physical scarcity tends to support higher prices, especially if demand continues or accelerates.
Meanwhile, registered COMEX inventories are tiny compared to open futures interest, which is several hundred million ounces.
“When paper claims vastly outnumber deliverable metal, a squeeze situation can occur — meaning prices can spike swiftly if enough holders insist on physical delivery. Lower inventories may lead to high volatility in silver prices because thin inventories make prices sensitive to flows, big swings up or down are more likely than smooth trends,” said Yadav.
Manav Modi, Commodities Analyst at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd., noted that on the Shanghai exchange, following the export ban, there has been a broad-based sell-off in metals from warehouse inventories, which indicates tightening physical supply conditions and reflects underlying demand strength. With constrained supply from mining and recycling activities, exchange inventories are increasingly being drawn down to meet demand
“This environment is fundamentally supportive for silver prices, as continued inventory depletion signals tightening availability. The combination of resilient demand and restricted supply could exert upward pressure on prices,” said Modi.
Further drawdowns in inventories, particularly a rise in cancelled warrants, should be viewed as supportive indicators and may present buying-on-dips opportunities in silver, he added.
Silver Price Outlook
Comex silver price is trading near $90 an ounce after retracing from highs above $121. MCX silver rate today was above ₹2,75,000 per kg level.
According to Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, the higher timeframe bullish structure remains intact for silver prices, and a sustained recovery above $92 – $96 levels may re-establish upward momentum toward $100 – $105.
“Industrial demand fundamentals and supply constraints continue to support the medium- to long-term outlook, though short-term volatility may persist,” he said.
For MCX silver price, he believes key structural support is positioned at ₹2,25,000 – ₹2,35,000, and a sustained hold above this zone could pave the way toward ₹3,00,000 – ₹3,25,000 in the medium term. A decisive break below support, however, may intensify short-term pressure.
Modi expects silver prices to trade in a broader range of $70 on the lower- end, and $90 to $95 on the higher end. If silver prices breach the $100 mark once again, he expects to see the bullish momentum to continue.
“MCX silver price breaches ₹2,85,000 to ₹2,90,000 per kg, the next upside targets could be ₹3,50,000 to ₹3,20,000 range. On the downside, ₹2,50,000 to ₹2,45,000 is likely to act as the immediate support zone. A decisive breach below this band could open the door for further declines towards ₹2,25,000 and ₹2,15,000 from a broader domestic market perspective,” Modi said.
Meanwhile, according to Yadav, silver prices remained in a primary uptrend on the weekly timeframe, and prices rebounded after three weeks of profit booking. Silver prices gained with moderate buying momentum last week but MACD and RSI are still signaling a cautious approach.
“Despite the recent pullback, the broader structure remains bullish as silver price is still trading well above the 20, 50, 100 and 200-week EMAs, all of which are positively aligned. The sharp upper wick near recent highs signals profit booking and supply emergence at elevated levels. In MCX, silver prices are likely to remain upside as current chart structure shows an oversold price condition on the weekly chart,” he said.
MCX silver price has resistance at ₹3,00,000 and support at ₹2,30,000 level, he added.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
