Indian retail investors witnessed the sharpest intraday swing of 2025 in silver-exchange traded funds (ETFs) on Monday, as prices reacted to the China export ban and the increase in margins on the white metal by the world’s most diverse derivatives marketplace, CME Group, over the weekend.
Shortly after opening at 9:15am, Nippon Silver ETF, the largest by assets under management (AUM) of ₹26,361.5 crore (as of 24 December), surged by 11% to a record high of ₹ ₹243.29 a gramme from Friday’s closing of ₹219.85.
From there, it plunged around 12:30pm by 19% to a low of ₹196.30 before trading 50 basis points lower at ₹218.68 around 1:30pm, showed data from National Stock Exchange of India Ltd (NSE). One basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point.
Similarly, Kotak Silver ETF gyrated by 24%, between a high of ₹244.7 and ₹185.57 per gramme before trading flat at ₹219.46. Tata Silver ETF swung 29%, moving between a high of ₹25.10 and a low of ₹17.77 per one-tenth gramme, before trading 50 bps lower at ₹22.25.
“Domestic silver ETF prices initially played catch-up with international prices on 26 December, where markets trade until midnight India time (against 3:30pm closing for the ETFs), before reacting to the CME margin impact on prices at noon,” said Satish Dondapati, fund manager at Kotak Mutual Fund.
While silver on CME Group’s Comex rose 17% to $84 an ounce before closing at $79.27 on 26 December after the NSE closed at 3:30pm, it traded down 1.8% around 1:30pm at $75.82. This, after CME on Friday evening, raised the margin to trade to $25,000 per contract, effective Monday, from $20,000 at the beginning of December.
“This reduces the leverage to trade, resulting in volatility rising,” said Naveen Mathur, director (currencies and commodities ) at financial services conglomerate Anand Rathi Group. “Volatility may increase in the coming sessions.”
“This is the highest intraday volatility in ETF prices seen in 2025,” added Dondapati, who also expects the short-term volatility to persist as traders holding leverage positions.
Silver has risen 154% on CME to $75.82 an ounce (31.10gm), thanks to a supply shortage and expectations of further shortages highlighted by Elon Musk on 27 December. He replied to a tweet on Chinese export restrictions, effective 1 January, by saying on X: “This is not good. Silver is needed in many industrial processes.” China is the world’s second-largest producer of Silver.
Against an annual global demand of 1.2 billion ounces each year, supply has fallen short by 200 million ounces, or 1 billion ounces, over the past five years. And China’s export control will result in a global supply reduction of 13% to 870 million ounces, according to Dondapati. This could result in increased volatility in 2026.
India’s largest silver ETF, Nippon Silver ETF, rose 157% to Monday’s level of ₹218.68 per gramme, tracking the international price movement.
Of the total intraday traded value of ₹5435.46 crore on 29 December, the delivery of Nippon Silver ETF units stood at 31.82% or worth ₹1,729 crore.
Silver is widely used in electric vehicles, solar panels, and semiconductors. The shortage has driven up prices to outsized levels, prompting analysts like Mathur to advise caution to new investors in the metal.
