MOSCOW, – Russian mining giant Nornickel expects this year’s nickel surplus to be 120,000 tons which is 30,000 tons lower than it previously thought, it said in a metals market review on Thursday.
Nornickel, the world’s largest palladium producer and a major producer of refined nickel, said it had lowered its estimate of the nickel surplus from 150,000 tons seen previously to 120,000 tons.
Next year, the surplus is expected to expand to 130,000 tons, Nornickel said, while the palladium market is seen balanced this year and next.
Nickel prices have remained stable this year at $15,000-$16,000 per ton, while other metals markets have been more volatile due to increasing macroeconomic uncertainty, Nornickel said.
“The main reason for this is the improvement of the market’s fundamental indicators,” the review said. “Despite the continued increase in nickel production in China and Indonesia, we are observing steady demand for nickel in China.”
Nornickel said that about 25% of nickel producers are unprofitable at current prices, and predicted that unprofitable production sites outside Indonesia could close in the near future.
“Therefore, despite uncertainty associated with new U.S. trade tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, the improvement in fundamental market indicators and the reduced surplus inspire confidence in the short and medium term for the nickel market,” Nornickel said.
The company said palladium demand would decrease by 2% this year to 9.1 million ounces. After stable production of palladium group metals in Russia in 2025, Nornickel expects output of those metals to grow next year with the launch of a new deposit in Chernogorsk by the company Russian Platinum.
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