The Indian rupee faced pressure, starting at 93.28 on Monday, April 13, which was a decline of 55 paise from Friday’s closing value of 92.73/$, following a two-week relief rally that was hindered by a spike in oil prices after Washington and Tehran could not finalize a deal to stop the conflict.
Brent crude for June delivery surged 7% to $102 a barrel, while US equity futures and Asian stock markets experienced declines. US Treasury yields and the dollar increased, reversing the trends seen in the previous week that had followed a ceasefire between the US and Iran.
The ceasefire seemed to be increasingly unstable after discussions in Pakistan over the weekend did not result in an agreement to conclude the war.
After negotiations fell apart, US President Donald Trump announced on Sunday that the US Navy would initiate a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump also cautioned that oil prices might stay high until the US midterm elections in November, marking a rare recognition of the potential political consequences stemming from his decision to strike Iran six weeks prior.
Extended high oil prices could pose a significant issue for oil-importing India, raising inflation concerns, hindering the economic outlook, and putting additional pressure on the rupee.
In the domestic equity market, stock indices experienced a significant decline in morning trading. The Sensex, comprised of 30 shares, sank by 1600.73 points or 2.06 percent, reaching 75,949.52, while the Nifty 50 fell by 468.85 points or 1.95 percent to settle at 23,581.75.
Foreign Institutional Investors acquired shares worth ₹672.09 crore on Friday, as indicated by exchange data.
On Friday, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reported that the country’s foreign exchange reserves rose by USD 9.063 billion to USD 697.121 billion for the week that ended on April 3, 2026. In the prior week, which concluded on March 27, overall reserves had decreased by USD 10.288 billion to USD 688.058 billion.
Technical Outlook
According to Amit Pabari, MD, Research Team, CR Forex Advisors with NOP-related flows now behind us and global uncertainties rising, the room for further rupee appreciation appears limited. USD/INR is likely to find a base in the 92.20–92.50 range, with a gradual move towards 93.50–94.00 levels.
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