Reliance shares have displayed remarkable resilience this month despite a sharp selloff in the Indian stock market. While the Indian stock market benchmarks- the Sensex and the Nifty 50- have lost almost 8% each in March so far, shares of the Mukesh Ambani-led oil-to-telecom-to-retail conglomerate, Reliance Industries (RIL), have climbed more than 2% this month, looking set to snap their two-month losing run. Notably, the Sensex and the Nifty 50 appear on course to extend losses for the fourth consecutive month.
Reliance share price rose more than 3% in intraday trade on Friday, March 20, on the NSE, a day after falling 1.7%.
Friday’s gains in stock prices can largely be attributed to improving market sentiment and expectations that crude oil prices may stabilise—amid reports suggesting global efforts to secure shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and the US-Iran war may be entering its final phase. Besides, the recent rally in the stock may also be sentiment-driven due to the upcoming initial public offering (IPO) of Jio.
As Mint reported on March 17, quoting sources, that Jio Platforms may file the IPO papers with the capital markets regulator SEBI in two to three weeks, as the company is close to finalising its draft red herring prospectus (DRHP).
As per the report, the Jio IPO may be India’s biggest by a private company and will see Jio selling 2.5% stake. The telecom and digital arm of Reliance Industries is likely to be valued between $100-$120 billion.
Should you buy, sell, or hold Reliance shares?
Most experts appear positive about the stock for the long term.
Recently, brokerage firm Motilal Oswal Financial Services reiterated its buy call on the stock with a target price of ₹1,750.
Motilal said even if Middle East tensions ease soon, supply chain normalisation may lag, keeping product cracks elevated and supporting Reliance Industries’ refining petrochemical margins.
“Assuming gasoil, gasoline, and jet fuel cracks sustain near $15, $5, and $15 per barrel, respectively, above historical averages during the first half of FY27, RIL’s O2C EBITDA could increase by nearly $170 billion, implying nearly 8.5% upside to our FY27 consolidated EBITDA and a target price of ₹1,846 versus current the current target price of ₹1,750,” said Motilal Oswal in a report on March 12.
Seema Srivastava, Senior Research Analyst at SMC Global Securities, said Reliance Industries’ long-term outlook remains resilient amid global turbulence.
“Reliance can benefit from crude price upsurge through stronger refining margins, while gas shortages may enhance realisations in its upstream segment. Yet, geopolitical instability and energy volatility will pressure near-term profitability,” said Srivastava.
“Diversification via Jio’s subscriber expansion and retail’s hyper-local growth provides structural strength, ensuring that despite global headwinds, Reliance sustains a balanced and durable growth trajectory,” Srivastava said.
Technical experts also appear positive about the stock at the current juncture.
“Reliance share price has gained around 3% today, and this move looks more like a genuine recovery rather than just a one-day spike. The stock had been moving sideways for some time, so this bounce indicates that buyers are stepping in again at lower levels,” said Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer (Advisory and Research) at Master Capital Services Limited.
Singh pointed out that Reliance seems to be attempting a move out of its recent consolidation range.
“The price action is gradually improving, with the stock holding key support levels and trying to build upward momentum. If this strength continues, there is a fair chance of further upside from here,” said Singh.
According to Singh, in the short term, the ₹1,450 to ₹1,480 zone will be important to watch, as it has acted as a resistance area.
“A sustained move above this range could lead to fresh buying interest. On the downside, 1,380– ₹1,400 remains a strong support zone, and holding above this level keeps the overall trend intact. Overall, the bias is turning positive, and a buy-on-dips approach looks reasonable while keeping an eye on the resistance breakout,” said Singh.
However, some technical experts suggest waiting for a breakout before initiating new long positions.
Jigar S. Patel, Senior Manager of Equity Technical Research at Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers, underscored that the Reliance Industries share price appears to be forming a strong base in the ₹1,370– ₹1,390 zone.
Patel highlighted that the stock is approaching a key falling trendline resistance, as observed on the chart, which could act as a hurdle for further upside. Momentum indicators are gradually turning positive, suggesting improving strength and a potential breakout scenario.
However, confirmation is essential before initiating fresh positions.
“A decisive daily close above ₹1,430 would indicate a breakout above the trendline and open the door for further upside. Until then, traders should remain cautious and avoid premature entries. On the downside, immediate support is placed near ₹1,376, which is close to the base formation zone. Overall, the setup remains constructive, but a confirmed breakout is required to validate bullish momentum,” said Patel.
According to Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking, Reliance is certainly showing resilience amid the prevailing choppiness in the market.
However, Mishra added that the upside seems capped due to a strong hurdle around ₹1,450.
“A decisive break above this level may result in the next leg of the up move towards the record high zone, i.e. ₹1,600,” said Mishra.
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Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.
