Shares of India’s most valuable company by market capitalisation (m-cap), Reliance Industries (RIL), have been caught in a freefall as they declined for the ninth day in a row on Monday, 8 June, amid broader weakness in the Indian stock market and relentless selling pressure from the foreign institutional investors (FIIs) due to the rising crude oil prices following the Middle East conflict.
Reliance Industries share price declined over 1.5% to its 52-week low of ₹1270.60 apiece in intraday deals today. During the nine-day losing run, the Mukesh Ambani-led company’s shares have shed 7%, eroding investor wealth by ₹129,000 crore as Reliance Industries’ market cap fell to ₹17.10 lakh crore today, down from ₹18.49 lakh crore before the decline.
So far this year, RIL’s share price has lost 19%, underperforming the BSE barometer, the Sensex.
The price action in Reliance shares shows persistent supply rather than one-day panic, and that matters because the stock carries weight across index sentiment, passive flows and broader market confidence, said Harshal Dasani, Business Head at INVasset PMS.
He added that a stock of this size does not keep declining unless institutional money is reducing exposure or refusing to add at current levels.
What’s ailing Reliance shares?
The fall in Reliance shares comes ahead of the company’s annual general meeting (AGM), slated to occur on 19 June 2026.
According to experts, the concern around the stock stems from oil price volatility and margin spreads due to the sharp increase in global crude oil prices since the onset of the US-Iran war. When oil prices rise sharply, it can raise input costs, weaken demand and as a result, petrochemical spreads may narrow.
Core earnings at Reliance’s refining business, a key profit driver that contributes nearly a third of the group EBITDA, fell 3.7% in the fourth quarter of FY26 from a year earlier. The company, meanwhile, missed quarterly profit expectations, hurt by higher input costs and supply disruptions linked to the Iran war.
“O2C has to deal with crude volatility and refining-spread uncertainty, retail growth has lost some of its earlier premium narrative, and new energy or AI-linked investments are still future value pools rather than current earnings drivers,” Dasani said.
Reliance shares outlook
Commenting on the outlook for the shares, Dasani said that technically, the stock needs to stop making lower lows before any recovery can be trusted. “A bounce from oversold levels is possible, but that alone will not repair the structure. The market now needs earnings clarity, capex discipline and visible monetisation from the next growth engines. Until then, Reliance remains a high-quality franchise, but the price action warrants caution,” he said.
Virat Jagad, Sr. Technical Research Analyst at Bonanza, said that Reliance Industries has broken below the crucial support zone near 1,315 and also breached the lower boundary of the descending channel, indicating a continuation of the prevailing downtrend. “Price is trading well below all key moving averages, with bearish EMA alignment reflecting sustained weakness. Volumes have remained elevated during the decline, suggesting aggressive selling pressure. RSI has fallen below 30, entering oversold territory, which may trigger short-term pullbacks but does not yet signal a trend reversal,” it added.
The immediate support is seen around 1,240–1,220, while any recovery is likely to face resistance near 1,315 and 1,360, Jagad said. He added that a sustained move above 1,360 would be required to improve the technical outlook, but until then the bias remains firmly bearish with rallies likely to attract fresh selling interest.
Despite this latest bout of weakness, analysts largely remain positive on Reliance shares. Trendlyne data shows that the stock has 24 ‘Strong Buy’ and seven ‘Buy’ calls.
YES Securities recently said that execution of massive capex (green hydrogen, batteries, retail expansion) is challenging and capital-intensive for RIL; however, in the long run, these investments have the potential to drive revenue growth.
The brokerage has a ‘Buy’ rating and an SOTP-based target price of ₹1,651 per share, based upon an operating earnings CAGR of ~5.8% over FY26-28e, where O2C and upstream contribution to EBITDA is ~40%; the rest would come from consumer biz, Digital/Retail in FY28.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
