Indian stock market: Indian indices declined for the sixth straight week, slipping nearly 0.5% amid heightened volatility driven by a mix of global and domestic factors. The holiday-shortened week opened on a weak note as rising US-Iran tensions and a spike in crude oil prices dampened sentiment, leading to intrusive selling.
However, equities recovered midweek, led by easing geopolitical concerns and softer oil prices. Despite the rebound, volatility persisted due to inconsistent global cues, sustained foreign institutional investor outflows, a weakening rupee, and inflation worries. Both benchmark indices, Nifty and Sensex, ended the week at 22,713.10 and 73,319.55, respectively.
Stock Market Outlook next week
According to Ponmudi R, CEO – Enrich Money, markets in the coming week are expected to remain volatile and largely driven by external developments, with direction shaped more by global cues than domestic fundamentals.
“Investors are likely to focus on geopolitical developments in the Middle East, trends in crude oil prices, movements in the rupee, and foreign investor activity. Any escalation in tensions or a sustained rise in crude prices could heighten downside risks. Conversely, a pullback in oil prices or an improvement in global sentiment may trigger short-covering and provide intermittent relief. Markets currently appear to be guided by news flow rather than structural trends, underscoring a lack of clear direction,” Ponmudi said.
Top 5 triggers for the Indian stock market
1] RBI MPC meeting
The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meetings for the financial year 2026–27 (FY27) will begin with the first session scheduled from Monday, April 6, to Wednesday, April 8.
“The Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy decision will be a key event, with participants closely tracking guidance on interest rates and the inflation outlook, said Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking.
According to the schedule released by the central bank, the six-member rate-setting committee will meet six times over the fiscal year to assess macroeconomic conditions and make important decisions on policy rates and liquidity measures.
2] US-Iran war
The US-Iran war, which will be entering sixth week, appears to be intensifying. Iran has reportedly shot down two US aircraft, while Donald Trump has warned that he will unleash “all hell” if Tehran does not agree to a deal or reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
“Remember when I gave Iran ten days to MAKE A DEAL or OPEN UP THE HORMUZ STRAIT. Time is running out – 48 hours before all Hell will reign down on them,” Trump reminded Iran on Saturday, signalling that the conflict could escalate in the coming days in the absence of a truce deal.
3] Crude oil prices
Following the effective shutdown of the vital Strait of Hormuz, oil prices have maintained a sharp upward momentum, with the Brent crude benchmark climbing to $109 on Saturday.
Before the conflict began, Brent crude was trading near $72 per barrel, but has surged by over 50% since the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28. The escalation pushed the Middle East into turmoil and led Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global energy supplies.
According to Mishra, developments in the US-Iran conflict and their impact on crude oil prices will remain critical drivers of market sentiment.
4] Indian Rupee
The rupee recorded one of its sharpest single-day rallies in years on Thursday, ending 152 paise stronger at 93.18 against the US dollar after the Reserve Bank introduced a series of measures to curb banks’ activity in the onshore forward market.
In the interbank forex market, the rupee opened at 94.62 and surged 188 paise during the session to hit an intraday high of 92.82 against the greenback. It eventually closed at 93.18, marking a gain of 152 paise, or 1.6%, from its previous close.
Earlier in the week, the domestic currency had weakened past the 95 mark on Monday before settling at 94.70. On Friday, it had touched a record low of 94.84 against the dollar, prompting the RBI to step in with multiple corrective measures.
5] FII activity
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) executed their biggest-ever sell-off in Indian equities in March, as the country remains particularly exposed to rising crude oil prices amid intensifying tensions in the Middle East.
In the cash segment, FIIs offloaded shares worth ₹1.22 lakh crore during the month, marking the highest monthly outflow on record.
“March witnessed massive selling by FPIs to the tune of ₹122182 crores. This is the biggest ever monthly selling by FPIs. Continuation of the war, crude again spiking to above $100 level, the steady decline in the rupee and appreciation of the dollar triggered this record selling by FPIs,” said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited.
On April 2, FIIs remained net sellers of Indian equities worth ₹9,931 crore, as per provisional exchange data. Meanwhile, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) remained net buyers, purchasing shares worth ₹7,208 crore. During the session, DIIs bought shares worth ₹18,421 crore and sold ₹11,213 crore. In contrast, FIIs purchased shares worth ₹10,627 crore while offloading ₹20,558 crore.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. Please consult with an investment advisor before making any investment decisions.
